Top five news that will move the markets today

Global financial markets will focus on the Bank of England meeting, and traders will look for information from Carney about when the bank will take the next interest rate rise. During the week, we expect two more key rate decisions - from Reserve Bank Of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The week will be relatively quiet on economic data coming from the US and the Eurozone.

Here are the details:

1. Bank Of England will spell its decision on the lions on Thursday and will also post its quarterly report on inflation immediately afterwards. The probability of raising interest rates is now low - 4.6% or, in other words, no raise. If the economic data and the Brexit negotiations maintain with the same success of the first increase in interest rates, we can only expect the meeting in November.

During the week we expect caution in GBP and UK, and after Bank of England's decision, increased volatility and likelihood of sudden movements. Traders will focus more on Carney's statement than they expect details of the Bank's future plans.

2. Reserve Bank of Australia - we expect the bank to resolve on Tuesday. Most economists expect the bank to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.5 percent - a record low for the central bank and no change for the 16th consecutive time. Prior to deciding on interest rates, retail sales data and the country's trade balance will attract the attention of the press, with expectations remaining positive. The probability of interest rate change is zero and a possible increase is not expected in the next 10 months.

We expect AUD to record increased volatility, but not sharp movements as a result of the interest rate decision.

3. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand - The update of New Zealand's monetary policy is due on Wednesday. Most market analysts expect the bank to maintain low interest rates at 1.75%. Low inflation in the country remains a major problem for central bankers and a major impediment to subsequent interest rates. Similar to the RBA, RBNZ interest rate hike remains zero, but the improving economy in the country gives hopes to traders that by the end of the year we may see an increase of up to 2.00%.

4. China's trade balance - data expected to show a slight decrease in the Chinese surplus to $ 54bn. from $ 54.7 billion. in December. Exports are expected to rise 9.5 percent year-on-year, with exports rising to 10.0 percent after an unexpected decline to 4.5 percent in December. The news will have a direct impact on AUD and NZD as well as on Asian stock markets. Taking into account the Sell Off-which we observe, even if the data prove to be better than expected, their positive impact on the indices will be limited.

5. Employment data in Canada - Canada will release employment data in the country on Friday, with the economy expected to add 10,000 new jobs in January after an increase of 54,000 in December. Given the worse expected data, unemployment is expected to rise to 5.8% from 5.7% a month earlier. In addition to the job report, Canada will publish monthly trade data, building permits, and detailed production surveys.

Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal

Jr Trader Petar Milanov

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