A confluence of mixed trade news kept Asian markets largely on hold, but with optimism. After the EU showed surprising unity Thursday in refusing to negotiate with the U.S. until offered a permanent exemption to steel and aluminum tariffs, reports broke early Friday that China had offered to cut its trade surplus with the U.S. by $200b/year. That barely had time to impact the market before Lighthizer came out to say that Nafta countries were "nowhere near close to a deal."
So, two bad bits of trade news versus one positive story. The China one is the most important, but I equate the reports so far to a too-good-to-be-true Tinder profile. And, in U.S. time, Nafta negativity may take over. Especially as Mark Cranfield warns that lira is set to give us another leg of EM FX pain in European time. Today's Macro View sympathizes with that view.
Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal
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