Три неща са се случили след мълниеносното издигане на щатската валута започнало в средата на 2014: цените на петрола се понижиха рязко, перспективите за растеж на САЩ намаляха, и финансовите условия се затегнаха преди Федералният резерв да реши да започне постепенно повишение на лихвения процент.
В зависимост от това по какъв начин бъде погледнато, това огромно рали на щатския долар започна да затихва в средата на март, или близо до края на септември.
Участниците на пазара често използват щатския доларов спот индекса, или DXY, за измерване на щатския долар, докато Федералният резерв запазва по-близък поглед чрез широкия търговско-претеглен доларов индекс, или TWI.
При разглеждане на различаващите се насоки на пазара и предпочитанията на Фед за курса на щатския долар, както и състава на двата индекса, икономистите на CIBC Андрю Грантхам и Ройсе Мендес заключават, че двата играят роля, в която обясняват защо глобалната икономика е толкова мудна:
DXY-which reached its peak in March, as the peak value of the dollar against the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. TWI, as its name implies, measure how greenback to a far broader range of currencies, many of which are emerging economies, and hit its highest level of the year in late September.
"The fact that DXY, which is composed of five major economies, not assessed means that the economies of the Eurozone, Japan and Canada have not benefited from the prospects for higher US interest rates," writes Grantham and Mendes.
"On the other hand, the appreciation of the TWI, which has come at the expense of emerging markets, has achieved an extremely high dollar debt that developing countries have to pay," conclude economists at CIBC.
At the same time, the currencies against which the dollar depreciated currencies are to developed economies which are struggling to gain a larger share of US domestic demand.
E.Dimitrov JrTrader
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