www.varchev.com

UBS Chairman Axel Weber says Brexit vote will overshadow the Federal Reserve rate decision

Rating:

12345
Loading...

This month's vote on the U.K.'s membership in the European Union will overshadow other risks and could spur the U.S. Federal Reserve to delay an interest rate hike, Axel Weber, chairman of UBS and a former central banker, told CNBC.

With the referendum on whether the U.K. should "Brexit" too close to call, "it creates huge uncertainty," Weber, who was president of the German Bundesbank from 2004-2011, told CNBC's "Street Signs" in an exclusive interview.

"You already see that British assets have a risk premium attached to them over recent months, including the pound," he said.

From a peak of around $1.5882 in mid-June of 2015, the pound is now fetching around $1.4431, losing more than 9 percent of its value against the greenback.

Concerns about the referendum may factor in to the Fed's decision-making on a rate hike, which has been clearly signaled as likely in June or July.

"I think June, because of the British poll, is less likely to some degree than a July move," Weber said.

"Whether it's July or June, for domestic reasons, purely domestic reasons, I think the U.S. is ready for a rate hike and the Fed has signaled that," he said. "The rest is tactical decisions on when to do that best rather than whether to do it or not to do it."

While some analysts believe the Fed is less likely to move when no press conference is scheduled, Weber doesn't believe it will be a factor.

A press conference is scheduled to follow the June 14-15 meeting, but not after the July 26-27 meeting.

"Monetary policy is not as much about the decision of the day. It's really more about forward guidance and about informing markets what's ahead and that's a much more medium term view," he said. "The Fed has done most of that. It might actually be helpful to decouple the ability to move rates from the ability to have a press meeting," he said. "It ties your hands in the market in an unfortunate way."

If there's no June hike, the Fed's language will be "pretty clear," Weber said. "I think the market then will almost perfectly price a July rate hike if the language is pretty straight forward."

But Weber was skeptical on the efficacy of a negative interest rate policy, saying that while negative rates may have more pronounced effects in small open economies, such as Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland, in large economies, such as the eurozone and Japan, the impact could "easily go the other way."

"What you usually want to do with lowering rates or going into negative territory, you want to boost consumption and reduce savings," he said. But in a negative-rate environment, people may become concerned about their ability to earn a decent pension, he said.

"That ability goes down dramatically in a negative interest rate environment so they might just overall be concerned about their level of pension and start saving more rather than saving less and consuming less rather than consuming more," Weber said.

Within the eurozone, UBS has repriced some of its products in response to negative rates, he said.

"Credit is getting more expensive in those areas where you can actually increase prices for those products," he said.


 Varchev Traders
RECCOMEND WAS THIS POST USEFUL FOR YOU?
If you think, we can improve that section,
please comment. Your oppinion is imortant for us.
WARNING: Any news, opinions, research, data or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Varchev Finance Ltd. expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Varchev Finance Ltd. may provide information, quotes, references and links to or from other sites and blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the sites, blogs or other sources of information.
Varchev Finance

London


25 Canada Square, Level 33, office 50, Canary Wharf London, E14 5LQ +44 20 3608 6256

Universal numbers

World Financial Markets - 0700 17 600    Varchev Exchange - 0700 115 44

Varchev Finance Ltd is registered in the FCA (FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY) with a passport in the United Kingdom: FCA, United Kingdom - registration number: 494 045, which allows provision of financial services in the United Kingdom.

Varchev Finance Ltd strictly comply with the statutes of the European directive MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments). targeting increased efficiency, transparency and uniformity of financial instruments.
Varchev Finance Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Supervision Commission - Sofia, Bulgaria: License number RG-03-02-05 / 15.03.2006

The information on this site is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.


Disclaimer:

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

chat with dealer
chat with dealer
Cookies policy