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UBS: Toronto and these other major housing markets are in a risky bubble
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Loading...Home prices are rising in most major cities around the world, but in some they are rising too far, too fast.
When prices reach the so-called bubble territory, that is, overvalued in relation to fundamentals like income and employment, they are at a far greater risk of correction. While it is hard to pinpoint exactly when that correction will occur, identifying the bubbles early can offer insight and protect investors.
In the last five years, bubble risk has grown significantly in several cities, according to a new report from UBS. Toronto, Stockholm, Munich, Vancouver, British Columbia, Sydney, London, Hong Kong and Amsterdam are at "bubble risk," according to its Global Real Estate Bubble Index.
Real house prices in these cities have risen nearly 50 percent since 2011. This is far higher than local economic growth and inflation rates, and incomes and rents have risen less than 10 percent in these cities during the same period.
While no U.S. cities make that highest "bubble risk" category in the index, San Francisco and Los Angeles are considered "overvalued." Prices in San Francisco are up almost 65 percent since 2011, but has "limited bubble risk, given its strong economic fundamentals amid the astonishing boom of tech companies," according to the report.
Of course a bubble can't be proven until it bursts, but history proves the risk to these markets when home prices are decoupled from economic fundamentals of a local market.
And then there is the "Superstar" scenario. This theory suggests that even when prices are out of whack with fundamentals, there are certain superstars, that will dominate. This holds true for movie stars and major metropolitan cities alike. UBS researchers suggest that Hong Kong, London and San Francisco are "Superstars." High net worth investors will always flock to these cities, and as long as supply doesn't exceed demand, prices are at less risk of weakening.
Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal
Junior Trader Stefan Panteleev
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