UBS with a forecast for the world economy in 2019

According to UBS, it is expected that the world economy will begin to slow down in 2019. Tightening monetary policy, weak growth in corporate profits and political challenges will only negatively affect growth.

UBS's initial forecast for growth was 3.8% in 2018, but already forecast a slowdown to 3.6% in 2019.

"Our view of the US economy is that it will slow down given the decreasing effect of fiscal stimulus and high base interest rates." - economists say in UBS. China, meanwhile, is about to suffer the consequences of US import tariffs and economic adjustment.

"The slowdown in world economic growth will cause counter-winds for markets that will begin to assess expectations of the end of this economic cycle." - say the investment bank.

On the other hand, UBS assured that a recession will not be achieved because of the high level of consumption, employment growth and investment, as the signs of recession are unlikely to be revealed in 2019.

"Our main view of inflation is to keep it within limits, which will allow the central bank to stick to the economic data." We do not predict a major fiscal change in politics or a protracted commodity shock. "

Other important political events that UBS considers to be important to investors this year include the elections in India, South Africa, Greece, Canada and Argentina. Europe will also vote for the European Parliament in May. In the United States, presidential campaigns will begin, and instability in Italy, Germany and the UK can bring people back to the ballots.

Source: CNBC

Read more:

• Risk off after the escalation in the Middle East, markets are recovering in a period of calm
• The macroeconomic events for today’s trading calendar
• The US government has confirmed the attacks, Trump is calling an emergency staff meeting
• Has the war between Iran and the US started?
• US markets remain under pressure, traders await Iran’s response