USD/BGN: 03.08.2017
Our expectations: After the key level 1,67 (24.08.2015 bottom) was broken and the new consequence started from DeM Sequential the likelihood for a new decline increases. A possibility for sell positions with SL 1,6705 but only after a correction near 1,67 as current levels doesn't create a good risk/reward spot for an entry.
Alternative scenario: If price breaks back above 1,67 this will cancel the negative scenario and might lead to a deeper correction.
Comments:
Clear mid term downtrend and breakout below key levels 1,67.
Price below a zone of resistances - diagonal and horizontal - negative signal.
DeM Sequential missed reversal pattern after forming a 9 and started a new counting signal for a probable upcoming downward movement.
Moving averages SMA50 and SMA200 in bearish formation which makes sell orders more rational.
DeM(8) reverses below 40 in oversold zone which increases the likelihood for a small correction, after which we can find good spots to for sell positions.
Mid term fundamentals are in favor for EUR and respectively for BGN after a series of improving economic data from the Eurozone. On the other hand the political uncertainties in the US remains and the downbeat in the economic data from the US will keep FED away from rate rise which is negative for the USD.
Trader Nikolay Georgiev
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