USD/CAD - Possible short term sell for many reasons

Forex forecast USD/CAD H4 - Short

The mid-term upward trend in the pair is already dilapidated, and the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy, strong oil and good Price Action give us a good opportunity for Short from the current levels.

How can these seemingly completely different factors make us drop the King Dollar and head to the Canadian?

The uncertainty brought about by Donald Trump's strenuous moves raises great questions about how the US economy will develop in the coming months. Earlier today, it became clear that Trump will introduce $50 billion of imported tariffs. on the import of Chinese goods, and how this will affect the USD is still controversial, as the president left the Chinese companies the opportunity to negotiate with him. With uncertainty in the markets, one thing is certain, investors are fleeing controversial instruments, such as the dollar.

Strong oil and Canada - despite oil depreciation and the Canadian government's attempts to reduce the Canadian economy's dependence on black gold, the correlation between CAD and WTI has not changed. Stronger oil strengthens the Canadian, and in this case it is strong support for short-term USD/CAD.

Technical Analysis - The price recorded a breakthrough in key support levels - horizontal, diagonal and SMA50, while at the same time remaining in several bars below. Breakthrough is real. Price Action - the price is an absorbing bar on H4, but activation of the formation is fake, and this in itself speaks of a strong Fake Setup in favor of Short-a. We have a bearish pin bar on levels of resistance - a strong bearish signal. Input from the current levels will be capped at SL at the levels of 1.2990 to 1.3000. The target that we can chase in the so-called circumstances is a drop to 1.2800 (On the graph - the end of the arrow).

Alternative Scenario: If the price goes back above the level of resistance and can be held there in several successive bars, then the negative scenario will be spoiled and we are more likely to see a price increase.

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