USD/CAD: Short remain in force, where is the profit today?

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD - D1 Our expectations:

The short-term downward movement remains in force, and the 200SMA breakthrough, coupled with a breakthrough of Fibonacci's 50% correction, gives us a good reason to believe the move will go down. What else do we have to support this? We have a horizontal resistance while RSI (14) remains below 50 - the downward momentum is in effect. The 50SMA still remains above 200SMA, but keeping the price in several consecutive bars under the strong resistance level clearly shows that the bulls just have no power to go over. From a fundamental point of view, Trump's controversial policies weaken the dollar, and rising oil strongly supports the Canadian. It seems that Syria's conflicts will hardly subsist, and it will continue to support black gold, and hence CAD.

SL: 1.2660

Alternative Scenario: If the price goes back over 200SMA and 50% on Fibonacci, and is able to stay there in several successive bars, the negative scenario will be spoiled, and we are more likely to see a USD USD CAD increase.

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