FX forecast / USD/TRY / Our expectations:
Medium-term bearish trend, the price is getting lower and lower. During the short-term consolidation, price movements form a flag formation that is triggered by the last downward momentum, which at the same time breaks through short-term horizontal support, is already resisting. 50 below 200SMA - the trend is in effect. RSI 14 points down and is between 50 and 30 - the pair is not yet in the over-sales area and the downward movement is more likely. Over the past year, TRY has faded a lot, reflecting the controversial policies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Currently, the economic situation in Turkey has stabilized, while the US budget concerns remain in place.
SL: 3.7777
Alternative scenario: If the price goes back to the flag and stays there in several consecutive bars, the negative scenario will ruin and we are more likely to see a USD growth against the Turkish lira.
Jr Trader Petar Milanov
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