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- What to expect from coming week: 10.09 – 14.09.2018
What to expect from coming week: 10.09 - 14.09.2018
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Loading...The new week will ask questions, which answers investors are unable to find for the moment. Donald Trump and his administration will be again the center of the events, which continue to ruin water in trade and create insecurity for everyone. After another week of hopes that ended unsuccessfully, talks between the US and Canada on updating the North American Free Trade Agreement have been dragged out after Trump said the pact would be drafted only on the model of the United States. From Canada they seem to disagree with this and put their cards on the table - the interesting thing here is that the US did not leave, which signaled a dose of optimism in the relationship. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer rescheduled his meeting with Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland for next week, giving the impression that there are still unspoken things between the two sides and an opportunity for an agreement. These discussions aim to end one year of difficult negotiations on the tripartite Free Trade Agreement in North America - NAFTA. The indices do not accept this uncertainty well by registering declines for the week shortly after the S&P 500 puts a new high. Canada and US hard tone have led to increased USD/CAD volatility, with traders weighing concerns about US-Europe-China trade relations.
Hedging U.S. Equities with Treasury Options
Trump puts a new blow on China, commenting that it has prepared a new $ 267 billion in tariffs for China, which are ready to be added to the initial $ 200 billion. These news did not bod well at all on the stock and FX markets, with USD/JPY down, moving away from the levels of resistance that had approached earlier, about 100 and 200 MA, 61.8% Fibonacci and the former trendline.
All this uncertainty, in combination with some macro factors, provides a good opportunity for long positions in gold in the future that remains around its bottom. According to some investors, the economy is headed toward a crash, and traders have to turn to gold to hedge their risky exposures. The dollar is in danger of collapse, as the only buyer in such a situation is the Fed. This in turn means even higher inflation.
The European markets most exposed to a sell-off
On the economic indicators for the new week, the center of events will come to the European Central Bank, which will decide on the interest rates in the bloc on Thursday. We expect Super Mario (Mario Draghi) to achieve a more balanced tone and interest rates to remain unchanged. It is still unclear whether the eurozone has been patrolled or is already in the midst of long-term cooling. While hard macro data published after the ECB meeting in June were encouraging and showing steady growth in the second quarter, soft indicators have shown signs of decline. As far as inflation is concerned, while overall inflation is around 2%, but the fact that core inflation has fallen to 1%, it shows that the ECB still has a long way to go. Although uncertainty about global factors, including the threat of increased protectionism, the eurozone's growth prospects remain broadly balanced.
The important economic news for the new week 10.09 - 14.09.2018
Monday:
02:50 Japan - Gross Domestic Product
04:30 China - CPI
11:30 UK - Gross Domestic Product
Tuesday:
11:30 UK - Claimant Count Change
17:00 USA - JOLT's Job Openings
Wednesday:
12:00 Europe - Industrial Production
14:20 USA - OPEC Monthly Report
15:30 USA - PPI
17:30 USA - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday:
04:30 Australia - Employment Change
14:45 Europe - ECB Interest Rate Decision
15:30 USA - Core CPI
15:30 Europe - ECB Press Conference
Friday:
05:00 China - Industrial Production
15:30 USA - Core Retail Sales
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