- Home
- >
- Fundamental Analysis
- >
- Varchev Finance: Next week in one post – 16.07 – 20.07.2018
Varchev Finance: Next week in one post - 16.07 - 20.07.2018
Rating:
Loading...The new week does not provide us with a lot of significant economic news, as it has been the case in the last few, but it does not mean it will be calm and quiet. The corporate season is undergoing, which is a sufficient prerequisite for good stock market movements and surprises. According to a large number of market participants, the Q2 season will be very favorable to cyclical companies where EPS growth of more than 20% will be within the range of normal. Despite the strong performance of technology companies, Morgan Stanley cut its forecasts for the technology sector and increased its expectations for the defense sector. According to the bank, the most profitable in Q2 were energy companies, technology companies, retailers, and mining companies. Since the commercial tariffs came into force a few days ago, we can not expect a significant impact on the sectors most exposed to the risk.
Investor Strategy for Gold Trading
The US dollar continues to be strong against its main competitors after the weak 2017. Unfortunately, for buyers, things start to change slightly against them. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates at least once more this year, with the potential for two more increases by the end of the second quarter of 2019, but the outlook beyond it is bleak. Investors believe that the US central bank is more likely to start lowering the interest rates rather than to continue at that pace by 2020. The market is a discounter, which means that the greenback is likely to decline long before the FED takes a sinister prospect - be it in 2019 or 2020. Skepticism in the market against rising interest rates is the main reason for the rise of US bond yields. The ECB plans to stop buying securities by the end of the year and to raise its interest rates in 2019. Sooner or later future-oriented FX traders can start to reflect on the interest rates of the US and the Eurozone. The Dollar Index has halted on a previous resistance of around 95.00 where it is expected to have a breakthrough break below 93.20 could mean a target of 92.00, then 91.00.
In the new week, market participants will also be interested in the OPEC + meeting. Oil prices have risen sharply in recent months, with signs of reversing trend now. Expectations from now on are negative, as Saudi Arabia and the Allies make more supplies on the market and are considering new increases in production. Saudi Arabia - along with Russia, Kuwait and the UAE - have pledged to respond to global oil demand as US sanctions have cut off Iran's exports and Venezuela's production has continued to decline. OPEC, Russia and other manufacturers have decided to increase their production to 1 million barrels in order to ease high prices. Governments around the world can also use their oil reserves. While oil stocks held by companies fell below their average of 2.8 billion barrels, governments in developed countries retained an additional 1.8 billion barrels in an emergency reserve. The meeting on Thursday will determine the medium-term trend of black gold.
The important economic news, that will drive the markets next week 16.07 - 20.07.2018
Monday:
05:00 China - Gross Domestic Product
15:30 USA - Core Retail Sales
Tuesday:
01:45 New Zealand - CPI
04:30 Australia - RBA Meeting Minutes
11:30 UK - Average Earnings + Bonuses
17:00 USA - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wednesday:
11:30 UK - CPI
12:00 Europe - CPI
15:30 USA Building Permits
17:00 USA - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday:
04:30 Australia - Employment Change
11:30 UK - Retail Sales
15:30 USA - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
15:30 Canada - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Friday:
02:30 Japan - National CPI
Tentative USA - OPEC Meeting
15:30 Canada - Core CPI
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov Read more:
If you think, we can improve that section,
please comment. Your oppinion is imortant for us.
