Varchev Finance - Trader's Playbook 05.08 - 09.08

Concerns about rising trade tensions seem to dominate market sentiment this week after US President Donald Trump raised his stakes in the Sino-US trade war and Beijing vowed revenge.

Trade data from China on Thursday will be closely monitored for signs of an impact on the economy. Investors will also expect a new round of central bank decisions after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week. Fed spokesmen will also be in focus as investors seek to gauge the future path of monetary policy. The economic data and profits of the companies will also play a role in building the weekly market.

Here's what you need to know to start your week.

1. Increased commercial tension

Global stock and commodity markets plunged deep into the red after Trump suddenly decided Thursday to impose 10% tariffs on $ 300 billion in Chinese imports, shocking investors and ending a month-long trade truce. China promised on Friday to return fire with fire.

Investors will closely monitor Chinese inflation and trade figures this week to update the world's No. 2 economy.

Trade data due on Thursday are likely to accelerate the downward trend in exports and imports, with exports expected to decline by 2.2% in July compared to the previous year, while imports are expected to show a decline of 7.6 %.

2. Central Banks

The central banks of Norway, New Zealand, Australia, India, the Philippines and Thailand hold interest rate meetings as investors monitor whether they will follow the Fed's example.

New Zealand is expected to decrease by another 25 basis points from its base rate of 1.50% and there are external bets that Australia could even make three cuts in a row, already reducing borrowing costs to 1%.

3. Fed Statements

The chairman of St. Louis Fed James Bullard is scheduled to speak on issues related to Washington's economy and monetary policy Tuesday, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is due to make remarks the next day.

The US economic data calendar is quite light, but data from the services sector today will give investors some information on whether the slowdown affecting the manufacturing sector is spreading.

4. European data

A week will be set for the euro area economic calendar with updated PMIs for July for services today and German industrial output on Tuesday, which will help investors gauge the strength of the largest euro area economy at the end of the second quarter.

In the UK, data from Friday is expected to show that economic growth stopped in the second quarter. Economists forecast a 0.1% monthly growth rate and 1.4% a year earlier. The forecast for industrial production will shrink, as will production.

5. We expect a slowdown in company earnings

The euphoria of the corporate season is beginning to fade, with this week we have about 62 S&P 500 member companies to publish their quarterly reports.

Investors will be closely following those of Walt Disney, CBS and Viacom amid the rising tide of competition in the video streaming segment against Netflix leader. The results can create volatility in the so-called service communications sector, which performed better than the broader market last week.

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