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- Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post – 02.08.2018
Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post - 02.08.2018
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Loading...Asian Stock Market - Mixed moods in Asian markets, as Trump has once again embarrassed investors. This time, with the intention of imposing a 25% rate on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. ASX200 in Australia declined by 0.24%, Nikkei 225 fell 0.41% and Kospi by 1.14%. In China, the markets also declined. Hang Seng declined by 1.57%, Shanghai composite by 1.94% and Shenzhen by 1.93%.
FX Market - Today all look at the Bank of England Baseline Interest Rate Decision, as well as Mark Carney's speech afterwards. Bank Of England is likely to step up another key interest rate. The probability of raising interest rates is close to 80%, suggesting that the base interest rate is likely to rise by another 25 basis points to 0.75%. Investors will follow closely the Dot Plot of the bank from where they will draw information on current moods among bank members. To this day, they remain relatively positive. 4 will surely vote for promotion, while only 2 remain opposed to raising interest now, suggesting that a change in their thinking is very likely. As for those who are neutral in terms of interest, they have positive attitudes. I expect strong movements in the pounds in it support, but with limited effect, as much of the expectations are already accrued in price.
Given the lack of news in the calendar and new threats from Donald Trump, the JPY marks an increase, while AUD and NZD, as directly related to the Chinese economy currencies are declining. As for GBP behavior, hours before BOE's key decision, the currency remains static at -0.19%.
Commodity Market - Oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed crude oil stocks in the US are unexpectedly rising. Opec's oil production rose in July after Saudi Arabia pumped record volumes to meet increased global demand and the risks posed by controversial Iran-US policy. Oil production in the kingdom increased by 230,000 barrels per day in July to 10.65 million a day. This, of course, is quite weak from the peak achieved in 2016. Higher crude oil production by Saudis, along with Nigeria and Iraq, increased total OPEC production by 300,000 barrels per day, offsetting losses from the spiral economic meltdown in Venezuela, Libya's political clashes and the "new old" US sanctions against Iran . In addition, earlier today, it was clear that US oil reserves were surplus again, this time 3.6 million barrels more. At the June meeting, OPEC agreed that it had reduced supply oversupply and had to restore its output to 100% of its target by the end of 2016. In other words, fundamentally there is no reason why the upward trend should not fall. Technically, the price remains in the upward trend, but there are several available signals that are good to look at. After the swallowing bar yesterday, the price was set below the 50-year average, forming the right shoulder of Head & Shoulders. Formation remains still inactive, with the main trend line being Neckline-a on the figure. In terms of indicators, the Commodity Chanel index 50 and 14 pass the key level 0, indicating a change in main traffic. Sell from the current levels would be risky, but the highly probable downward break will boost negativity.
European stock market - European index futures indicate a negative start from sales in China and the United States. The German DAX will start with a downward run at 12687 euros, the French CAC with 5475 euros and UKX 7621 pounds. During the European session, we expect the data on BoE's main interest rate, news that will most likely exert pressure on the British index. Today the interest rate is sure that traders will focus not so much on him, but on Carney's speech afterwards.
US Stock market - Dow Jones declined by 81.3 points, with the largest exporters Caterpillar and 3M falling behind by 3.36% and 2.25% respectively. The broader S & P 500 index declined by 0.1%, with the industry declining by more than 1%. The Nasdaq tech index rose 0.46% mostly thanks to the manufacturer of the iPhone, Apple Inc. Apple's good performance gave the technology industry the much-needed boost after the disappointing data for the second quarter of Facebook and Twitter. The war on the trade war was back in sight in the markets after the news that US administration Donald Trump plans to impose a new 25- China's $200 billion in customs duties, changing the original 10% tariff plan, in an attempt to exert pressure on Beijing for trade rebates.
Economic calendar for the European and US trading sessions - 02.08.2018
11:30 UK - PMI in Construction
14:00 United Kingdom - Basic Interest Rate
14:00 United Kingdom - MCP Dot Plot
14:00 United Kingdom - Bank Of England Report on Monetary Policy
14:30 UK - Speech by Mark Carney, governor of BoE
15:30 USA - Jobless claims
17:00 US - Factory orders
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