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Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post - 03.08.2018

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Asian Stock Market: Asian stocks traded mixed on Friday, with several regional markets attempting to recover after sliding on trade jitters in the last session. The mixed picture also came on the back of tech-led gains seen stateside as Apple became the first publicly traded U.S. company to hit a market cap of $1 trillion. Japan's Nikkei 225 edged up by 0.25 percent, led by the transport equipment and automobile sectors, with Suzuki Motor up 8.21 percent after reporting strong earnings. Overall gains were capped by declines seen in utilities and financials. In South Korea, the Kospi added 0.47 percent as the manufacturing sector notched gains in morning trade, with cosmetics also climbing. Index heavyweight Samsung Electronics traded flat. Australian stocks also tracked slightly higher, with the S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1 percent amid broad-based gains. Elsewhere, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was marginally lower, trading down 0.06 percent.

 

FX Market: Sterling failed to rally in response to the Bank of England's decision to raise the bank rate 25bps to 0.75%. An extended dip towards 1.25 vs USD cannot be ruled out, near term.  Prime Minister May is keen to build support for the UK government's plan for its future relationship with the EU ahead of key meetings with heads of state in September and, most importantly, the October EU Summit. Sterling is fundamentally cheap and the economy is holding up reasonably well. But uncertainty is dominating in thin summer markets. Progress on Brexit is needed to encourage buying interest in the pound, which remains rudderless for now.

 

Commodities market: Opec's oil production rose in July after Saudi Arabia pumped record volumes to meet increased global demand and the risks posed by controversial Iran-US policy. Oil production in the kingdom increased by 230,000 barrels per day in July to 10.65 million a day. This, of course, is quite weak from the peak achieved in 2016. Higher crude oil production by Saudis, along with Nigeria and Iraq, increased total OPEC production by 300,000 barrels per day, offsetting losses from the spiral economic meltdown in Venezuela, Libya's political clashes and the "new old" US sanctions against Iran . In addition, earlier today, it was clear that US oil reserves were surplus again, this time 3.6 million barrels more. At the June meeting, OPEC agreed that it had reduced supply oversupply and had to restore its output to 100% of its target by the end of 2016.

 

European Stock Market: Major European indices will record losses at the start of trading today. DAX recorded one of his weaker days yesterday, expecting him to try to recover positions today. Traders will be interested in the UKX response after BoE raised their interest rates by 25 basis points. Marc Carney commented that trade pressure has risen, and global growth is more volatile, which is not new news for anyone, but still the premise is that indices will not be able to gain profits today.

 

U.S. Stock Market: Today, traders are expected to keep a cautious tune of trade, given the growing tensions between the US and China. President Donald Trump said he is considering lifting the proposed $ 200bn worth of Chinese goods. up to 25 percent of the 10 percent rate the state administration is currently considering. On the other hand, NFP data and levels of unemployment in the United States are expected later this session. Expectations are strong on both fronts, which will support the view that the US economy is performing awesome, and this, combined with good business reports and calm around China, can be reflected in a very strong last session of the week for major indices.

 

Economic calendar for the European and U.S. trading sessions:
10:55 Germany - Services PMI
11:30 UK - Services PMI
12:00 Europe - Retail Sales
15:30 USA - Nonfarm Payrolls
15:30 USA - Unemployment Rate
15:30 Canada - Trade Balance
16:45 USA - Markit Composite PMI
17:00 USA - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
20:00 USA - U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count


 Trader Aleksandar Kumanov

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