- Home
- >
- Fundamental Analysis
- >
- Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post 04.01.2018
Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post 04.01.2018
Rating:
Loading...Asian Stock Market: The Asian markets followed Wall Street's positive closure and are trading with rallies. The Japanese Nikkei added 3.2% to its value as a result of the weakening yen. Australian ASX has a 0.14% increase as the companies that contributed the most to this rise are petroleum companies. The Chinese markets were also in green. Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite have 0.33% and 0.16% increase.
FX market: USD is still weak. Despite successful tax reform and expectations of at least 3 interest rate hikes in 2018, the USD is among the weakest currencies on the market. The dollar index remains above level 92, which gives hope for a short-term correction of the US currency. Today we'll see ADP data for December. Better than expected data will be positive for the USD, with NFP expectations on Friday also positive. We may see closing of short positions against the dollar and a short-term appreciation of the US currency. JPY remains under pressure. The market does not expect the central bank to take action to raise the interest rate or reduce QE, which negatively affects the JPY. We remain negative to the yen. GBP is among the strong currencies currently on the market. Negotiations on Brexit are on track, though difficult. We are expecting the next round of talks to discuss UK-EU trade agreements. Also, in strong support for the GBP, speculation is that the central bank may raise the interest rate twice this year to catch up on inflation that is over 3%. EUR is the strongest currency on the market. Although the exact date is not known, the ECB will reduce the quantitative easing and raise the interest rate. The market perceives this as extremely positive for the EUR. We can expect an further increase of the common currency.
Commodities market: GOLD reflected a decline during the Asian hours. After the great performance of the precious metal over the past few weeks, it is now possible long positions to be closed and beginning of a corrective movement. The price is still above the key level of $ 1300, but for the moment the bearish momentum is in force. OIL: continued to rise through the Asian session. WTI has a 0.36% increase at $ 61.84 a barrel, and Brent with a 0.07% increase at $ 67.89 a barrel. We have to keep in mind that despite the good sentiment of black gold, we are entering a price zone where shale manufacturers are very much favored. We may soon see an increase in the number of working platforms in the US and Canada and, therefore, a decrease in the price of oil.
European stock market: European benchmarks will open with mixed moods following the Asian markets. The German DAX will open a 30 point increase in the price of 13,040, the French CAC with a 10 point rise to 5354, but due to the strong GBP, UKX will start the session by about 10 points lower. The market is expecting inflation figures that we will see tomorrow. Inflation in the union remains persistently below the central bank's target of 2%. If data is below expectations again tomorrow, we may see a decline in European indices.
American stock market: Only days after the beginning of the new year and the US indexes again have new record highs. S&P rose 0.6 percent and closed for the first time above the important psychological level of $2700. The Nasdaq Technology Index also posted an increase of 0.8% and closed the session at $7,065.53. The DJIA joined the fun and added almost 100 points to its value to close close to the key level of $25,000. Expectations for US indices are extremely positive. Once the tax reform is a fact, and infrastructure reform does not seem to be delaying, US companies are blooming. We expect a further rise in US benchmarks.
Economic calendar for the European and American trade sessions 04.01.2018
9:00 UK - HPI
10:50 France - Services PMI
10:55 Germany - Services PMI
11:00 EU - Services PMI
11:30 UK - Services PMI
15:15 USA - ADP Non-farm payrolls
15:30 USA - Initial jobless claims
15:30 Canada - RMPI
16:45 USA - Services PMI
18:00 USA - Crude oil stocks
20:30 USA - FOMC member Bullard speaks
Varchev Traders Read more:
If you think, we can improve that section,
please comment. Your oppinion is imortant for us.
