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- Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post 08.05.2018
Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post 08.05.2018
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Loading...Asian stock market: Asian markets edged up on Tuesday following the firmer lead from Wall Street. Oil prices, meanwhile, tracked lower following President Donald Trump's announcement that he would make a decision on the Iran nuclear deal on Tuesday during U.S. hours. The Nikkei 225 reversed early weakness to tack on 0.2 percent and the Topix edged up by 0.48 percent, with 28 of its 33 subindexes higher in the morning. The mining and oil sectors traded lower. Across the Korean Strait, the benchmark Kospi added 0.42 percent. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index advanced 0.59 percent amid broad-based gains. The energy sector was among the best-performing sectors in the morning, with the heavily weighted financials sector also notching gains. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 added 0.42 percent with financials climbing 0.96 percent and leading the index's advance.
FX market: USD/JPY's Failure to firmly break above the 50.0 retracement level @ 109.93 and the 110.00 figure level saw buyers face some exhaustion and so far it is continuing into the new week. The pair is now trading near the lows at 108.89, with the declines believed to be haven buying ahead of Trump's decision on Iran later - according to Bloomberg sources. Nonetheless, that is quite expected with the amount of uncertainty (both in terms of Trump's decision as well as Iran's possible retaliatory measures against the US) surrounding the situation. It's not exactly clash of the titans, but it is still geopolitics. In terms of levels to look out for, the key one for the pair is the 100-day MA @ 108.65. Friday's attempt to move below it failed, but the trend lower is still continuing at the moment so that will be one to watch out for. A break below would present a fresh bearish bias, and the pair will be set to move back towards 108.00 and below again. There isn't any key option expiries on the board today for the pair so that isn't going to be much of a factor. There are real money bids reported near 108.50 (near the 24 April low) though, so be wary of that level for support too. As for offers, they're currently reported near 109.40 - coinciding with yesterday's high. But the key risk item to look out for will be Trump's decision on Iran, so make sure you keep an eye out on that.
Commodities market: Crude futures in New York topped $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014 as traders brace for a re-imposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran that risks disrupting exports from OPEC’s third-largest producer. Oil has rallied 16 percent so far this year as OPEC and allied producers crimp a global glut and geopolitical risks multiply in the Mideast region that’s home to almost half the world’s crude.
European stock market: The European Central Bank warned that a rise in trade protectionism would undermine the global economy, and said the U.S. would be among the worst-affected. The cautionary comments coincide with data showing factory orders in Germany unexpectedly slid for a third month in March, another sign of the weakness that’s dogged the euro-area economy since the start of the year. Separate reports showed investor confidence in the currency bloc fell for a fourth month and a retail gauge suggested that sales contracted for the first time in more than a year. The ECB has cited tariffs as one of its chief concerns as the institution’s policy makers edge toward the end of their stimulus programs. President Mario Draghi has warned that while the impact of already-adopted protectionist measures is limited, the prospect alone of trade war between the U.S. and China -- two of the bloc’s biggest trading partners -- could damage confidence and reduce consumption and investment. “In a scenario in which the U.S. increases tariffs markedly on imported goods from all trading partners that retaliate symmetrically against it, the outcome for the world economy would be clearly negative,” ECB researcher Lucia Quaglietti wrote in an Economic Bulletin article published Monday. “The impact could be particularly severe in the U.S.”
U.S. stock market: Stocks gave back most of their gains on Monday after President Donald Trump tweeted he will be announcing his decision on the deal on Tuesday. The tweet also knocked the wind out of energy stocks, which had been the main driver in the stock market. The Dow Jones industrial average traded just 8 points higher after rising as much as 200 points, while the S&P 500 held just above breakeven. The Nasdaq composite traded 0.5 percent higher after rising more than 1 percent. "Oil dove pretty good on that, then energy stocks led us off the highs," said Dave Lutz, head of ETF trading at JonesTrading. Crude fell in after-hours trading after settling 1.5 percent higher. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) traded just 0.2 percent higher. Earlier in the session, it traded about 2 percent higher.
Economic calendar for the European and U.S. trading sessions:
09:00 Germany - Industrial Production
10:15 USA - Fed's Chair Powell Speaks
10:30 UK - Halifax House Price Index
12:00 Europe - Economic Forecasts
15:55 USA - Redbook
17:00 USA - JOLT's Job Openings
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