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Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post - 12.03.2018

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Asian stock market: Asian stocks got off to a strong start to the week, tracking stateside gains in the last session on expectation-topping jobs data. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 was up 1.43 percent, or 305.94 points, after recording a more than 400-point gain earlier. The broader Topix rose 1.33 percent, with gains seen across all of the index's 33 sectors. Over in Seoul, the benchmark Kospi index advanced 1.12 percent Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index advanced 1.53 percent, or 472.96 points, as energy and tech names led broad-based gains. Index heavyweight Tencent was up 2.06 percent. Mainland markets also traded higher, but saw slighter gains: The Shanghai composite edged up by 0.51 percent and the Shenzhen composite added 0.81 percent. Small caps outperformed in the early going, with the ChiNext start-up board up 1.22 percent in comparison with the blue chip CSI 300's 0.44 percent gain.

 

FX market: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%. The yen rose 0.2% to 106.64 per dollar. The Aussie dollar gained 0.3% to 78.65 U.S. cents, its highest in about two weeks, after Australia was exempted from U.S. metal tariffs. The euro added 0.1% to $1.2321. The pound was little changed at $1.3859. The dollar index managed to stabilize after the White House's decision to give the countries hit by tariffs the chance to negotiate with the state administration. An additional boost for the green currency was Trump's agreement to meet Kim Jong Un, and to negotiate the demilitarization of the Communist Party. The yen is trading up with the Asian session as a result of scandals in the Japanese Ministry of Finance. There debates arose as to the political future of Finance Minister Taro Aso after it became clear that the ministry had falsified documents relating to scandalous land sales.

 

Commodities market: WTI was up 0.1% to $62.11 a barrel. It climbed 3.2% on Friday. Gold fell 0.1% to $1,322.64 an ounce as trade war concerns have fallen, while Trump has asked Kim Jong Un for face-to-face negotiations. Copper's price reached a 7-year peak in 2017, with market expectations for a further rise in the price of the metal. The reason for this is that electric car makers, phone makers and computer chips are exerting pressure on Copper-producing companies to offer more. By 2025 the demand for Copper will be 3 times higher than in 2020. this growth is expected to continue until 2030. These incredible growth rates for Copper industries raise concerns that the supply of the metal will be insufficient and this will lead to a price increase.

 

European stock market: Today European markets are expected to start the week with rises. The German DAX will open with 26 points profit at a price of 12,397; The French CAC has 15 points in positive territory at about 5,295; while UKX started with a modest loss of 7 points. Investors' focus will be on Washington, as prices for steel and aluminum imports to the United States will be negotiated. On Friday, traders will track inflation data in the region. The report is expected to show an increase in consumer prices by 1.2%, 0.1% slower than the previous month. Latest inflation figures in Germany, Spain, Italy and France are also expected this week.

 

U.S. stock market: After strong Wall Street closing on Friday, the futures of the major US indices are trading up. Global financial markets will focus on data on US inflation and how it will impact on the Fed's plans for the future of monetary policy. Also, retail sales data for February is also expected. This report should give more clarity about the strength of the economy before the meeting of the central bank on March 20-21. Market analysts expect consumer prices to rise by 0.2%, weakening from 0.5% in January. On an annual basis, the estimates are for a 1.8% increase - no change compared to the previous month. High inflation plays the role of the catalyst, which can drive FEd to raise rates at a faster rate than expected. In retail sales, the consensus is that the report will show an increase in sales by 0.3% over the previous month. Rising retail sales are talking about strong economic growth, while weaker figures signal downward movement in the economy. Consumer spending is about 70% of US economic growth.

 

Economic calendar for the European and U.S. trading sessions:
17:30 USA - 3 and 6 - Month Bill Auction
19:00 USA - 3-Year Note Auction
20:00 USA - Monthly Budget Statement


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