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Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post - 13.08.2018

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Asian stock market: Asian markets declined on Monday as investor sentiment took a hit amid the renewed slump in the Turkish lira. The Nikkei 225 slid 1.6 percent as the yen firmed amid uncertainty in Turkey. Chinese shares were also dented, with the Shanghai Composite losing 1.15 percent and the blue-chip CSI 300 index down 1.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, meanwhile, fell 1.6 percent as all sectors recorded steep declines. Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 recorded slimmer losses, with the index last trading lower by 0.46 percent.

 

FX markets: The new trading week began and we see that the most traded currency pair EUR/USD opened lower, as a result of the last week's sale. Monday offers a limited economic calendar, leaving markets free to drop, while European traders will track the CPI in Germany (2.1% vs. 2.1%), as well as preliminary GDP data (0.4% forecast at 0.3%), both reports will be Tuesday morning. Threats from the banking sector in Turkey have forced traders to bet again on the dollar, with the Turkish lira collapsing 42% in 2018 and showing no signs of stopping. With the Monday morning gap on the 12-month low at 1.1380, the Asian session is likely to give traders a chance to fill the downside, bringing the pair back to the key technical level of 1.1400. Sales may continue if positive news about Turkish bank exposures does not materialize quickly with the start of the European session.

 

Commodities market: WTI is currently traded in the $ 3 range, which is the narrowest range since 2003 based on monthly data. Currently, the market is still weighing down US stocks and potential supply constraints in the Middle East against the escalation of trade tensions between the US and China. Oil traders will most likely continue to focus on a series of bearish factors affecting the market this week, including emerging surplus data and renewed concerns about global demand delays.

 

European stock market: European sectors are expected to follow the example of their colleagues from Asia and start the red session. Uncertainty around Turkey has led investors to withdraw their equity from stocks and to pour them into safe haven assets. As far as the economic calendar is concerned, there are several important events that traders need to look out for in the new week. On Tuesday, Germany and Europe will announce GDP for the quarter, with no changes expected from the previous quarter.

 

U.S. stock market: The indices are close to their record levels that can be broken, but the strong dollar may have a negative impact on them and delay the new peaks, despite expectations of good indicators and rapid growth in the economy. The US economy is currently dominating, with macro indicators being very promising. The only thing that does not give investors a calm is inflation, trade rhetoric and the relationship between the US and Turkey.


 Trader Aleksandar Kumanov

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