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- Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post 14.02.2018
Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post 14.02.2018
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Loading...Asian stock market: Asian markets are trading in mixed moods. Japan's Nikkei is with decline of 1.33%. Automobile producers in the country show the biggest weakness. Toyota and Honda Motor are down 2.63% and 1.8% respectively. Korean Kospi generated a 0.68% increase. The Australian ASX deduct 0.27% of its value. The Chinese markets were also on different shores. Hang Seng rose 0.77%, while Shanghai composite and Shenzhen composite declined by 0.3% and 0.17%.
FX market: USD remains under pressure. The US currency again lost its bullish momentum to its main competitors. The EUR/USD traded above 1.2450, as in the Asian session passed above SMA 50 and its diagonal resistance, which shaped the downward movement. Negative sentiment to the US remains at least until we see data today on the Consumer Price Index, which is the main measure of inflation, and retail sales. If the CPI is above expectations, we will probably see a strong upward momentum on the dollar. The CPI's rise will spur speculation that the Fed will raise the interest rate more than three times in 2018. Conversely, lower data will lead to doubts that the Fed may re-examine its opinion on 3 interest rates. In the medium term we remain negative toward the dollar. CAD: The Canadian currency remains on the positive side of the market. CAD manages to keep its strong momentum and does not step into the main currency pairs. The currency base remains strong. An important role is played by the relatively high price of oil. The two instruments are in a positive correlation. We will follow the next BoC president's statement to find out if the central bank is going to be aggressive this year and raise the interest rate once more. Later this week we expect the country's industrial sales data. For data higher than expected, we may see a rising impulse from CAD. In the medium term, we remain positive towards CAD. EUR: The common currency does not step back even with a millimeter. Investors have taken their long EUR positions only to buy it at a better price. EUR's upward momentum is strong. Today we expect the data on GDP and industrial production in the union. If the numbers we see are above expectations, we expect a strong upward momentum of EUR. In the medium term, we are positive towards EUR.
Commodities market: GOLD: The rise of the precious metal continues and the reason for this is the weak dollar. We are now far from the key level of 1300 $ and again we are aiming at the top reached on 25.01. Today, inflation data in the US will seriously affect the GOLD price. The reversed correlation between the price of gold and US inflation remains. We can see a strong bearish momentum if CPI data is above expectations. OIL: Black Gold futures indicate that during the Asian hours there were no major price changes in the prices of the 2 major oil benchmarks. WTI traded at 59.17$ a barrel, down 2 cents, and Brent traded at about 62.77$ a barrel, up 5 cents. The weakness of the US currency supports the price of OIL (because oil is quoted in USD).
European stock market: European indices will start the session on Wednesday with small increases. The German DAX is traded with a 10 point increase in the price of 12265 euros, the French CAC with a 5 point increase of 5136 euros and the UKX with a 4 point increase of around 7202 pounds. Sales have ended and investors are sticking to the old saying "buy the dip". The sentiment of the European economy remain strong and this will most likely cause the bullish trend to continue. We remain positive about European benchmarks.
American stock market: The US index is the same as in Europe. The beginning of the week brought profits for the indexes, which will hopefully encourage investors. The foundation for the US economy remains positive. Today we expect CPI data in the country and if there is no major negative surprise, we expect the indices to continue the upward momentum. We remain positive towards the US indices.
Economic calendar for the European and American trade sessions 14.02.2018
9:00 Germany - CPI
9:00 Germany - Gross domestic product
12:00 EU - Industrial production
12:00 EU - Gross domestic product
14:00 USA - MBA Mortgage applications
15:30 USA - CPI
15:30 USA - Retail sales
17:00 USA - Business inventories
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