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- Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post – 16.08.2018
Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post - 16.08.2018
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Loading...Asian Stock Market - Asian markets were again trading in declines, although China announced it is planning a new round of talks with the United States. Beijing said they have accepted an invitation from the US to take part in the trade talks in late August. As a result, shares in China quickly wiped out much of the losses and managed to rise. Despite the growth, however, Shanghai composite was down with -0.39% and Hang Seng with -0.43%. Nikkei traded at -0.22%, Kospi by 0.90%, and ASX200 almost unchanged, -0.09%.
FX Market - After it became clear that China would sit at the negotiating table with the US, the currencies that had been the victims of the trade war so far were rebounding in the upward direction. AUD was trading at a 0.40% increase, with better data on unemployment, which fell to 5.3% from 5.4% over the previous month. Turkey has agreed with Qatar to receive financial assistance, which has contributed to a reduction in tension, and from there TRY posted an increase. The EUR is also trading well against good news from China and Turkey. I expect the growth of the above-mentioned currencies to continue during the European session. Today we expect UK retail sales figures, which, given positivism, do not expect to have a big impact on the GBP.
Commodity Market - Gold as a safe haven tool has recorded a strong downward momentum amid news from China. In view of the positive positivism, traders will further unload their long positions in gold, but the dollar will continue to weaken. Quite correlatively this will be the support of the price of gold. I expect increased volatility in the precious metal, but without targeted movements during the European and State Session today. Sustainable growth in US shale oil production is likely to offset global production problems over the next few months. The moods of the oil market are heavily influenced by the growing demand and supply gap for oil. On the one hand we have an escalating trade war and currency crisis in Turkey that make large companies consuming oil to reduce stocks in order to protect themselves from possible losses and on the other, appreciating US dollar, which further drives the price down (albeit purely correlative ).
European Stock Market - Expected in the light of positive news from China and Turkey, European markets will start to grow. The DAX30 will open upwards of nearly 20 points at 12,208 euros. In France, the CAC40 will start trading with a 10 point increase at a price of 5319 euros. UKX will open an increase of 5 points at a price of 7518 pounds. Today at 11:30 we expect retail sales data from the UK, with better data supporting the UK benchmark and vice versa.
US Stock Market - Dow fell by nearly 140 points, along with 0.8% for the S&P500. The Nasdaq dropped significantly, which provided a very good opportunity to hold long positions that are currently gaining momentum. The impact of the crisis in Turkey, as well as the trade war, has managed to concentrate on European and emerging markets, while US futures kept the positive sentiment of last week. Current adjustments provide good opportunities for adding long-term long positions. I expect the positivism of the US markets to remain and until the end of the week to observe new peaks.
Economic Calendar for European and US Stock Sessions - 16.08.2018
11:30 UK - Retail Sales
15:30 United States - Building permits
15:30 United States - Philadelphia Manufacturing Index
15:30 Canada - Non Farm Payrolls
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