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- Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post – 17.04.2018
Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post - 17.04.2018
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Loading...Asian Stock Market - Despite the better data from Chinese economy, most of the Asian shares are traded declining. Geopolitical tension continues to exert its influence. Last night's strikes did not have a major impact on the markets, but the general feeling of insecurity remains strong. Tokyo Nikkei 225 is trading almost unchanged, while in Seoul, Kospi managed to reach unimaginable + 0.1%. In Australia ASX200 fell 0.27%. In China, Hang Seng traded 0.08% lower, mainly due to the growth of local currency, which is supported by the country's good economic data. Shanghai Composite rose 0.12% and Shenzhen collapsed by 0.48%.
FX Market - Expectly, against the backdrop of what happened in the Middle East and the decline in stocks, JPY registered growth. Today we expect a number of economic data from Europe, and if they are weaker than expected, we can look for JPY purchase levels. Despite good data on the Chinese economy, AUD and NZD continued to accumulate fears of a trade war. CAD has shown a slight decrease, but I expect the upward momentum to continue to develop. If we look at USD/CAD, the currency pair still gives adequate levels for Short with the short-term trend. The short-term downward movement remains in force, and the 200SMA breakthrough, coupled with a breakthrough of Fibonacci's 50% correction, gives us a good reason to believe the move will go down. What else do we have to support this idea? There is a horizontal resistance while RSI(14) remains below 50 - the downward momentum is in effect. The 50SMA still remains above 200SMA, but keeping the price in several consecutive bars under the strong resistance level clearly shows that the bulls just have no power to go over. From a fundamental point of view, Trump's controversial policies weaken the dollar, and rising oil strongly supports the Canadian. It seems that Syria's conflicts will hardly subsist, and it will continue to support black gold, and hence CAD.
Commodity Market - Gold continues to trade near to the top, but bulls fail to find breakout forces in the upward direction. It seems that the peaks around the current levels prove to be of fundamental importance for the price development. If we look at things fundamentally, we will need several factors to awaken the gold bulls. Perhaps it is a matter of time as we see constant attacks between countries in the Middle East, and with successful attempts and targeting this will lead to new refugee flows to Europe and will cause considerable concerns among investors. Growth in oil over the past few weeks has somewhat accumulating tensions in Syria, but we still do not see the escalation between the different countries in the Middle East. We are waiting for news from the region, with any WTI correction being used to add to the long positions.
European stock market - European markets will open up with gains accumulating Wall Street growth, but I think that during the European session the shares will not get the necessary support because of a number of fundamental reasons that I listed in the above rows. What can turn the course of things is the economic data we expect from Europe. At 11:30 UK will present the data on the labor market in the country. Better data would be better for FTSE and GBP. At 12:00, ZEW will publish data on the economic sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone. The DAX30 is expected to start at 44 points, CAC40 with 6 points and UKX 15 points higher.
The US stock market - Dow Jones jumped 212 points, and SP500 by 1%, following a statement from the Pentagon, which says the strikes in Syria were enough to prevent chemical attacks by the Syrian government in the near future. On the other hand, in the US, Bank Of America Merrill posted a better-than-expected financial result for Q1 by 2018. The two news raised the risk appetite of investors, which made them buy. Still, there is still something worrying about the market, and that's too high Wall Street expectations for companies. Consensus forecasts are that US companies will register 17.3% earnings growth in the first quarter. At first reading - Super, but statistics indicate that high lanes are difficult to skip, and this would bring the indexes into broad consolidation near the peaks.
Economic Calendar for European and State Stock Sessions - 17.04.2018
11:30 UK - New Jobs
11:30 UK - Unemployment rate
11:30 UK - Average hourly wage + Bonuses
12:00 Germany - ZEW Economic sentiment
12:00 Eurozone - ZEW Economic sentiment
15:30 United States - Building permits
16:15 USA - Industrial Production
23:30 US - API Crude oil inventories
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