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- Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post – 24.08.2018
Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post - 24.08.2018
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Loading...Asian stock market: Asia markets were mixed in morning trade on Friday as investors reacted to an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, developments in Australian politics and economic data from Japan. In Australia, the ASX 200 was up 0.27 percent as politics in the country took center stage in Friday's trading session. Besieged Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was ousted after this week's leadership troubles and Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison was tapped by the Liberal Party to become the country's next prime minister. In Japan, both the Nikkei 225 and the Topix index rose 0.35 percent.
FX Market: The dollar remained relatively strong against most currencies. Today, Powell will be speaking at the Jackson Hole, and his statement is expected over the weekend. The power of the green currency comes from one side of the cash flow. The market is already heavily net dollar, so maybe part of the move is due to this in combination with the fact that the liquidity is lower for the season. On the other fronts, there are several reasons to sell the other currencies. The Australian is hit by the political issues and potential dealings with China over 5G technology. GBP / USD is always under the influence of the news from Brexit, although there is nothing worrying today. On the other hand, the movement is also due to the currencies of the developing markets. South African Rand is 1% down today due to Trump's statement, with all other EM currencies also in red territory, except Argentine Peso. So the dollar situation remains mysterious. This can also mean action from China or another central bank buying dollars. But it can not last long, because the chances of long-term dollar buying are small.
Commodities market: Investors in gold-traded gold-traded funds preferred to accumulate short positions over the past 13 weeks. This was dictated by the long period of decline in the precious metal for a number of reasons. The main reason for the collapse of the precious metal is the strong growth of the USD, and in addition, futures auctions and reduced demand for physical gold. We have not seen such a series since 2013 when gold has been subject to such a wave of sales. Given USD weakness signals, Trump's attempts to influence Fed policy will likely have a positive impact on the metal, expecting growth if not growth, at least retention of the price around the current levels. Technically, the price is far removed from support or resistance, as the current Price Action indicates that testing the area around 1200/1205 is the most likely scenario. There the precious metal will most likely last for a longer period of time.
European stock market: European markets will start with positive sentiment, mainly because of good trade in Asia. It seems that the correlation between the Western and Asian markets will remain. DAX will start with nearly 30 points higher at a price of € 12428, CAC40 with an increase of 10 points and UKX by 15 points. Given the positive start, I expect a strong last trading day of the week for the stock and indices of the region.
U.S. stock market: For the most part of the day, I expect positive trading on the US indices. In the early afternoon, traders will follow with increased interest the Jackson Hole Symposium, as well as the statement of Fed President Jerome Powell. The real event will be held over the weekend, so the predictions are for a relaxed trading session (of course, if Trump did not intervene before.)
Economic calendar for the European and U.S. trading sessions:
09:00 Germany - Gross Domestic Product
15:30 USA - Durable Goods Orders
Tentative - Jackson Hole Symposium
17:00 USA - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov Read more:
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