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- Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post – 29.06.2018
Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post - 29.06.2018
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Loading...Asian stock market: Asian stocks were mixed on the last trading day of the quarter, with Japan and South Korea shrugging off gains seen stateside while China markets crept slightly higher. Japanese stocks slipped, with the Nikkei 225 trading lower by 0.36 percent. In South Korea, the Kospi erased early gains to decline 0.42 percent. Heavyweight Samsung Electronics dropped 0.85 percent although other tech plays climbed slightly, while automakers and energy industry shares declined. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged down by 0.13 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.35 percent, with the consumer goods and information technology sectors leading gains in the morning.
FX Market: U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and America First protectionist policies could be helping to accelerate the end of the dollar’s (DX=F) reign as the world’s reserve currency, analysts warn. Having already instituted worldwide tariffs on steel and aluminum and threatening more taxes on foreign products from China, the European Union and a host of other U.S. allies and rivals, the president is pushing foreign governments to reconsider holding dollars and U.S. Treasury reserves. Using the dollar has long posed a risk to certain countries. China’s central bank in 2009 called for a global move away from the U.S. dollar after the market turbulence caused by the U.S.-induced global financial crisis. The People’s Bank of China renewed those calls in 2013 after the U.S. government shutdown when House Republicans refused to raise the nation’s debt ceiling, causing a downgrade to the nation’s credit rating.
Commodities market: In recent days, oil has continued to accumulate new sanctions against Iran, with investors completely ignoring OPEC+ intentions to increase volume by up to 1m. barrels per day. At first glance, sanctions with Iran appear to be a very solid foundation for oil, but Iran's real oil will remain on the market, and the price should fall. Where is the problem then, and why do we observe this steady growth? It seems that the problem is rooted not in OPEC+ or Iran, but in Canada, Kazakhstan and Libya, countries that have a small share of the oil market. Only two weeks ago the three countries in question were not included in the list of countries of which they could be of concern. Over the last 14 days, however, the yields of Libya, Canada and Kazakhstan have dropped drastically, fully covering OPEC+ efforts to increase yields.
European stock market: The main indexes in the region will start their last quarterly session with decent profits. All monitors shine green, but the economic calendar of the day will present a lot of uncertainty for investors. Today we expect data on retail sales and employment rates in Germany, followed by Gross Domestic Product in the UK. The island's data has disappointed us over the past few weeks, so Bank of England's interest rates can not be pushed up things change. Theresa May continues to face difficulties and obstacles on her way to Brexit, which throws the English markets into uncertainty, making them unattractive to investors.
U.S. stock market: The XLF ETF, which tracks the financial sector, jumped higher Thursday ahead of the Fed’s annual CCAR stress test results. If the gains hold, the move will break a record 13-day losing streak for financials, but according to Dan Nathan of RiskReversal.com, there could be even more gains ahead. On Wednesday, the XLF saw a surge in trading activity, with call options doubling that of puts. Within the activity was a purchase of 21,000 July 27 calls for 41 cents per contract. This is a bullish bet that the financials ETF will be above $27.41, or up about 3 percent from its current levels, by July expiration. Financials are one of the worst-performing sectors this quarter and have fallen nearly 5 percent year to date. The group has been weighed down by the underperformance of big banks like J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup — which make up more than 32 percent of the ETF’s holdings. Still, Nathan believes the biggest catalyst for the group will come next month as many of the large banks prepare to report earnings. “So in my eye you get a move in the XLF between now and July 20 close [of] about 3.5 percent in either direction." Shares of the XLF are up more than 8 percent in the last 12 months and were trading higher Thursday afternoon at around $26.65.
Economic calendar for the European and U.S. trading sessions:
09:00 Germany - Retail Sales
10:55 Germany - Unemployment Rate
11:30 UK - Gross Domestic Product
12:00 Europe - CPI
Tentative Europe - EU Leaders Summit
15:30 USA - Personal Spending
15:30 Canada - Gross Domestic Product
17:00 USA - Michigan Consumer Sentiment
17:30 Canada - BoC Business Outlook Survey
20:00 USA - U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
22:30 USA - CFTC Speculative Net Positions
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