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Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post 30.03.2018

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Asian Stock Market: Markets in Asia traded higher on Friday for the last trading day of the quarter, following a rally in U.S. stocks overnight. But trading volume is set to be thin as many markets in the region, including Australia, Singapore, India and Indonesia, are closed for the Good Friday public holiday. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.86 percent in morning trade while the Topix added 0.4 percent. In South Korea, the Kospi was up 0.74 percent. In the Greater China region, Taiwan's Taiex was up 0.94 percent. The market in Shanghai was up 0.11 percent while the Shenzhen composite added 0.63 percent.

 

FX Market: In the currency market, the Japanese yen traded at 106.16 to the dollar on Friday morning, strengthening from a previous low of 106.53. A relatively weaker yen is usually a positive for exporters because it increases their overseas profits when converted to the local currency. Elsewhere, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, traded at 90.011 at 10:13 a.m. HK/SIN, climbing from levels below 89.600 earlier in the week. Fears of a trade war between the United States and China appeared to ease this week and some analysts said they're confident the two countries will negotiate a deal. Beijing said last week it may target 128 U.S. products with an import value of $3 billion in response to President Donald Trump's broad steel and aluminum import duties. The U.S. president had also announced tariff plans for up to $60 billion in Chinese imports, although China didn't officially connect its threats of retaliation to that White House action.

The value of the euro will be crucial to the development of European equities in the second quarter of the year. A large number of investors are of the opinion that there are no major fundamental events in the next three months to shift the direction of European assets.

What is worrying about the European capital market is that eurozone economic data are beginning to slow down, we see Sell Off in the technology sector and experts believe the EUR/USD will continue to grow.

A quick look at the correlation shows that it is again directed to a negative territory. With others, the change in the value of the EUR will have an increasing impact on the movement of European equities.

Things have gone awry for European stocks this quarter, with the region’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index on track to post a loss of 5.1 percent for the period, its worst performance since early 2016.

During the three-month period, the index gained or lost more than 1 percent 16 times, versus only three times in last year’s fourth quarter.

With signs of a rollover in a number of economic indicators, the roller-coaster ride for European stocks might just be starting.


 Trader Aleksandar Kumanov

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