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- Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post 31.01.2018
Varchev Finance: Trading day in one post 31.01.2018
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Loading...Asian Stock Market: Asian markets are trading with gains. Japan's Nikkei is 0.29% in green territory. The manufacturing and technology sector has contributed mostly for the rise of the index. Australian ASX climbed 0.23%, with only the energy and materials sectors declining. The Chinese markets were trading in mixed moods. Hang Seng added 0.42% to its value, Shanghai composite rose 0.17%, Shenzhen composite wiped 0.8%.
FX Market: The weakness of the dollar continues. The dollar index remains below key level 90. The EUR/ USD pair failed to keep below 1.23, suggesting that the dollar bulls have no power to continue. Today we expect important data from the United States. First, at 15:15, we will see the change in ADP's employment, and later in the session we will see the Fed's decision on the interest rate. Analysts expectations are that there will be no change in the base rate. For the moment, moods around the dollar remain negative, although the central bank is likely to raise the interest rate 3 times this year. Speculation by some of the FOMC members for more than 3 hikes, we will probably see a strengthening of the dollar. JPY weakened during the Asian session. BoJ announced that it is again raising the buyout of 3-5-year government bonds (QE), from 300 billion yen to 330 billion yen. The news is negative for the yen. Expectations are Japan's central bank to be the only one that will not raise the interest rate this year. We will look for short positions against the yen of any convenient adjustment. CAD remains among the strongest currencies on the market. Economic data from the country continues to exceed expectations. The high oil price also contributes to a strong CAD. Today we expect the data on Gross Domestic Product in the country. Judging by previous data such as retail sales, business confidence, construction of new homes, we can assume that GDP in the country will be at or above expectations.
Commodities market: GOLD is trading with gains during the Asian session. The price of precious metal remains quite high despite the risk appetite of investors at record levels. The reason for this is the weak dollar and low inflation in the United States. For the moment, GOLD remains a little bit lower than high reached earlier in 2018. If we see a breakthrough over it, the upward momentum is likely to resume. Today we expect a high volatility in the gold price around 21:00 when the Fed announces its interest rate. OIL: The three-day decline in the price of black gold continues. During the Asian hours, the futures of WTI and Brent again declined. WTI declined by 1% and went below $64 a barrel, and Brent wiped 0.6% of its value and was priced at $67.96 a barrel. The sentiment about the oil price is mixed. The OPEC reduction mining agreement aims to raise prices, but on the other hand, the US and Canada are increasing their output as a result of this price increase, which will ultimately offset the output limitations set by OPEC.
The European stock market: After the Tuesday sale, today we expect European indices to have a strong start. The German DAX will start the session with a 50-point increase of 13,246eur. the French CAC with a 16 point rise to 5488eur., and the UKX with a 15 point increase of 7592 pounds. The slump in the indices we saw yesterday may have been just a profit taking, and now market players are preparing for new purchases. The EU's sentiment has not changed and remains very positive, which suggests that long positions are more logical. We remain positive about European indices.
American Stock Market: Panic ?! No .. just a 2 day drop. After making more than 50 historic highs in the last few months, the US indices recorded a few days of corrective movement. Market analysts are of the opinion that this is perfectly normal and there is no need to be frightened. The US reporting season continues, and we still expect to see how the big names of technology have been introduced in the last quarter of 2017. We remain positive about US benchmarks.
Economic calendar for the European and American trade sessions 31.01.2018
9:00 Germany - Retail sales
9:45 France - CPI
10:55 Germany - Unemployment change
12:00 EU - Unemployment change
12:00 EU - CPI
14:00 USA - Mortgage market index
15:15 USA - ADP Employment change
15:30 Canada - Gross domestic product
16:45 USA - Chicago PMI
17:00 USA - Pending home sales
17:30 USA - Crude oil stock
21:00 USA - Interest rate decision
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