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- Week ahead – Non Farm Payrolls and Reserve Bank of Australia on focus
Week ahead - Non Farm Payrolls and Reserve Bank of Australia on focus
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Loading...The start of the new week will be marked by extremely low volatility due to the celebration of the Catholic Great Day in much of the developed countries of Europe and Asia. Of course, this will not prevent market sentiment from changing very quickly and at the end of the week to observe a high volatility generated by new jobs in the United States. Yes ... USD will again be the focus of traders and investors. Next week, the most significant event for the trader community will be data on new jobs, unemployment rates, and average hourly wages in the United States. You probably wonder what are the expectations among Wall Street investors - this time down. Let's look first at ADP on Wednesday. ADP's NFP expectations are 205K compared to 235K in February. The consensus forecast for the official data we expect on Friday is even worse, 198K versus 313K in February. It looks like the dollar will be under pressure, and the indexes will look for direction. We will probably not see a significant rise in USD, and many market participants will be disappointed again.
Next week, we'll also find out about RBA's decision on Australia's interest rates. Expectations are that interest rates remain unchanged at 1.50%. The report, following the Reserve Bank Of Australia decision, will most likely confirm its position on interest rate policy, and this will lead to a short-term decline in the Australian. The short-term Short Trend against USD will remain in effect, with each adjustment being used to add to the short positions. AUD and NZD will literally continue to be driven solely by Trump's decisions and his tweets. Any decision or statement by the president against China turns out to be detrimental to both currencies because of the close economic links between Australia and New Zealand with China. What pulls investors out of the Sell button is the commitment to communicate between the White House and China. Last week, we witnessed a major move from North Korea - Kim Chen Un visited China and reaffirmed his intentions for a dialogue with the US peninsula on the peninsula and denuclearisis. This, along with the stabilization of the indices, led to a withdrawal from the JPY. If we look at the big picture (W1) at USD / JPY, we will see that the price is at the key level of diagonal and horizontal resistance + swinging bar on a weekly basis - a high probability of USD growth and a JPY decrease next week.
Next week, we will get a detailed view of retail sales in Europe and the United States, and the data will be indicative of consumer sentiment in the largest economies. Here are the details:
The economic news that will move the markets next week
Monday:
Holiday in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and UK
02:50 Japan - Tankan industrial production
04:45 China - Caixin Industrial Production
16:45 USA - Manufacturing PMI
17:00 USA - ISM Production PMI
Tuesday:
01:00 New Zealand - Business Confidence
01:30 Australia - Production Index
07:30 Australia - RBA interest Rate
07:30 Australia - RBA report on the key interest rate decision
09:00 Germany - Retail Sales
10:15 Switzerland - Retail Sales
10:55 Germany - Production PMI
11:00 Eurozone - Production PMI
11:30 UK - Production PMI
23:30 US - API Crude Oil Inventories
Wednesday
04:30 Australia - Building permits
04:30 Australia - Retail Sales
04:45 China - Caixin PMI in Services
11:30 UK - Construction PMI
12:00 Eurozone - CPI
12:00 Eurozone - Unemployment rate
15:15 USA - ADP Non Farm Payrolls
17:00 USA - Durable goods
17:30 US - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday
Holiday day in China and Hong Kong
03:30 Australia - Trade Balance
09:00 Germany - Machine orders
10:15 Switzerland - CPI
11:00 Eurozone - Services PMI
12:00 Eurozone - CPI
12:30 UK - Services PMI
15:30 US - Trade Balance
15:30 USA - Jobless claims
15:30 Canada - Trade Balance
Friday
Holiday day in China
02:30 Japan - Consumer spending
09:00 Germany - Industrial production
15:30 USA - Non Farm Payrolls
15:30 USA - Average hourly wage
15:30 USA - Unemployment rate
15:30 Canada - Unemployment Rate
20:00 USA - Baker Hughes oil rig count
Trader Petar Milanov Read more:
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