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- Week ahead on the markets 24 – 28 April 2017
Week ahead on the markets 24 - 28 April 2017
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Loading...US stocks remained volatile, and treasury bonds rose because investors remained cautious in front of the presidential elections in France this Sunday. The Euro dropped slightly before the vote, as results will have major impact over the next movement of the single currency.
The geopolitical risks and the possibility of "Frexit", which is likely to trigger the end of the EU, will continue to weigh down on the stock markets. According to recent polls, the chances for Le Pen to win the elections are close to 40%.
The S&P 500 scored its best week since the energy stocks slump after oil prices fell below $50 a barrel in New York. European stocks traded in a narrow range. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell for a second week, as US President Donald Trump said the US currency was too strong.
UK100 dropped around 200 basis points after Theresa May appointed snap elections, which made GBP fly north against all currencies.
Economic data to follow next week:
Monday:
11:00 Germany - IFO Business Climate and Business Expectations
13:00 UK - CBI Industrial Orders
15:30 USA - Fed Chicago economic activity
15:30 Canada - Wholesale Sales
18:30 USA - FOMC Kashkari speech
Tuesday:
02:50 Japan - Corporate Services Price Index
09:45 France - Business survey
15:55 USA - Red Book
16:00 United States - HPI
17:00 USA - CB Consumer Confidence
17:00 USA - New home sales
Wednesday:
04:30 New Zealand - CPI
09:00 Switzerland - Consumption Indicator
09:45 France - Consumer Confidence
11:00 Switzerland - ZEW Expectations
14:00 USA - Mortgage Index
15:30 Canada - Retail Sales
17:30 USA - Crude oil inventories
Thursday:
02:50 Japan - Purchase of foreign bonds
04:30 Australia - Import and Export Price Index
(Floating time) Japan - BoJ monetary policy statement and interest rate decision
09:00 Switzerland - Trade Balance
09:00 Germany - GfK Consumer Climate
09:30 Japan - BoJ press conference
12:00 Europe - Consumer confidence
14:45 Europe - Percentage of deposits
14:45 Europe - ECB interest rate decision
15:00 Germany - CPI
15:30 Europe - ECB press conference
15:30 USA - Orders for basic durable goods
15:30 USA - Trade Balance
16:45 USA - Bloomberg Consumer Confidence
17:00 USA - Pending home sales
Friday:
01:45 New Zealand - Trade Balance
02:30 Japan - Housing costs
02:30 Japan CPI
02:50 Japan - Industrial Production
02:50 Japan - Retail sales
04:30 Australia - PPI
04:30 Australia - Private Sector Loans
08:00 Japan - Construction Orders
08:30 France - GDP
09:00 Germany - Retail sales
09:45 France - CPI
09:45 France - Consumer spending
10:00 Switzerland - KOF leading indicator
11:30 UK - GDP
12:00 Europe - CPI
15:30 USA - GDP
15:30 Canada - GDP
16:45 USA - Chicago PMI
17:00 USA - Michigan Consumer Confidence
During the next week markets will be driven mainly by GDP and inflation data as well as the results of the French presidential elections. We expect strong movements by the euro on Monday and also the French CAC index and French shares. If Le Pen go to the second round of the election with more votes, it would have a negative impact on the euro and positive on European stocks.
The Japanese yen was among the strongest currencies in the past week, but has been weakening over the past two days as the large hedge funds have turned their net positions against the yen.
Gold remains supported by the geopolitical uncertainty.
The big drop in the oil price affected negatively on the indices. If the situation remains the same, we are likely to see lower index prices.
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