Westpac: Expect NZD/USD below 0.6400

In the mid-term, we remain a bearish one, expecting a test at 0.6400 at the end of 2018. We believe that the USD will continue to rise, given the direction the Fed made late last night. In addition, the likelihood of the differential between yields between US and New Zealand government securities to rise remains very high in favor of the USD.

Technical look

Downward trend, correction to basic diagonal resistance. The price generates ever lower peaks and deeper bottoms. At this level is also 23.6% Fibonacci, as well as 50 SMA. Price Action signal from the absorbing day bar at resistance levels - the price failed to close over 23.6 Fibonacci and formed a swallowing bar - a signal that the bulls did not find the necessary support to break through the level.

Entry from the current levels will be risky and for this reason it is good to put the couple on our Watch List. Login can be searched for upward price up to 50% of the absorbing bar. When reaching the price there is a good chance to get down on H4/H1 in search of Price Action confirming the level.

SL: 0.66202

Alternative Scenario: If the price goes above the resistance zone and stays there, a negative scenario will break and we are more likely to see the pair rise.

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