What can we expect from the FED meeting today? Comments and recommendations

Powell's press conference is at 21:30 Bulgarian time.

Commentary from Barclays: The Federals will most likely leave interest rates at their current level by sticking to a more balanced tone, expressing patience. In their statement, we expect them to reduce the importance of economic data, but to focus more on their predictive policy of guiding, which is in line with their intentions of more patience.

Commentary from Westpac: Since meeting in December, markets have become more tangible about global and financial risks, and this is becoming more and more noticeable. But their confidence in the US economy vanishes with every passing day that goes with an incompetent government. FOMC's focus has shifted to global risks and adheres to their timeliness. While these factors remain at the forefront, we expect a more in-depth discussion of the consequences of stopping the work of US government institutions. We expect to cancel the interest rate cut in March due to a lack of economic sampling. Markets will therefore focus on FOMC's view of interest rates from June onwards.

Comment from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch: We expect the FOMC to signal the imminent halting of the balance. We look forward to speeches about monetary policy delays, despite the economic data being tracked. They will most likely emphasize patience again.

Comments from TD: FOMC will most likely emphasize patience and data tracking, aiming to remove the policy rhetoric. Risks should remain "fairly balanced". Market participants will expect the announcement of the end of the balance, but Powell may suggest a bigger balance. We look forward to buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenarios on the markets by predicting the US dollar returning to the bottom of the range before the match. The lack of initiative by the Fed should lead to a decline in the USD / JPY exchange rate.

Morgan Stanley's Comment: The recent FED rhetoric points to dovish position. Again, the balance will be crucial, as we expect an announcement to stop its expansion. However, markets are not prepared for this event and we can expect significant repercussions on FX markets. We think the USD will weaken, and if the FED does not justify specific expectations, think that the EM sector currencies will be preferred. We recommend long positions in currencies such as NOK, SEK, BRL, ZAR, CLP, CNH and CAD.

Read more:

• Risk off after the escalation in the Middle East, markets are recovering in a period of calm
• The macroeconomic events for today’s trading calendar
• The US government has confirmed the attacks, Trump is calling an emergency staff meeting
• Has the war between Iran and the US started?
• US markets remain under pressure, traders await Iran’s response