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What to expect today at 15:30 from Non-Farm Payrolls
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Loading...After Thursday's auctions, markets are preparing for the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report from the United States.Economists expect the report to show 178,000 newcomers in the non-agricultural sector, while unemployment remains at a record low of 4.3%. Also, investors will see the increase in hourly pay. Over the past few months, Average hourly payment was more important news than NFP, and USD was moving toward this data. Today, expectations are up 0.3% on a monthly basis.
On Thursday we saw the ADP report, which was quite disappointing. With 185,000 expected, the real data was well below expectations - 158,000. This had a negative impact on the indices, with confidence in the US economy shaking more and more from a series of bad data.
The past few years have shown that ADP and NFP reports very often move in correlation, but what we see in the graph below begins to change from the beginning of 2017. "The two reports generally do not differ much in more than 2 months , But we see that in the last 6 months we see that this trend is changing. " Says Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank.
According to the researches conducted, the expectations of the leading economists and analysts are rather negative for the upcoming report. Expected data is 179,000. According to UBS and CITI, the actual data will be below 155,000 and 177,000 respectively. According to Goldman, the data will be slightly above the expected figure of 180,000. Jim O'Sullivan of High Frequency Economics believes that the results Of the NFP will be well above expectations by 190,000. His opinion should be taken into account because the last two years, he was the most successful in predicting the NFP.
Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal
Trader Bozhidar Arabadzhiev
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