Market prudence is likely to remain high until the end of today's trading sessions, as investors are still weighing the likelihood of the Fed to raise interest rates by the end of the year. Over the past two weeks, this probability has fallen, reflecting a decline in USD. Now, however, speculation that even if there is no interest rate rise, it is likely that the Fed will start shrinking it's balance sheet during the autumn may support the USD.
The greenback may rise only when improving US economic data, which will reverse the declining tendency of the Fed to act. Better data will quickly change the speculation around the Fed. Therefore, all eyes will be focused on the economic calendar pending economic data. Today the data about Producer Price Index will be released at 15:30 and tomorrow data on consumer prices. Better data will support USD, otherwise the dollar will lose positions.
On the other hand, there is no negative factor in the market, such as North Korea, for example, which will not allow the indices to fall, risk appetite is still in vogue. It is very likely that we will see a slight increase of the shares in the next minutes and the data at 15:30 will determine the start of the session in the United States. The economic expectations of the eurozone economy are good, making European stocks attractive.
In the currency market, we see slight corrective movements over the previous 2 days, which are only technical adjustments for now. The probability of a new impulse in the direction of major movements is greater.
GBP depreciation may also be temporary. All technical indicators still support pounds.
Stefan D. Angelov - head of Stocks Trading
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