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What the big banks are expecting of the FOMC today
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Loading...We are about to see the latest Fed meeting report today, 19.06.2019, at 21:00, to get more information on their future policy and possible interest rate change today. Chance cuts today are estimated at 23%, with interest rates likely to remain at least until July.
Here's what the big banks say about the forthcoming FOMC.
Bank of America / Merrill Lynch think the interest rate cut will happen in July. They recommend hedging positions at the G-20's positive development and hawkish surprises by the Fed. Any news about improving the trade war sentiment could lead to a rise in bond yields.
UBS expects the FED to remain still dovish, although the data so far for Q2 is very good. The current interest rates are too high.
Morgan Stanley expects an dovish Fed to focus more on weak inflation expectations. That is why the bank expects the possibility of reducing interest rates this summer to remain fully real. Retail sales data encourages investors to believe there will be a reduction in interest rates, which will form a positive, sentiment risk.
Societe Generale does not expect a change in interest rates tomorrow. The bank believes that as a whole this year, the Central Bank will not change them but will be ready to take action if the economic pace falls below the trend for 2020.
TD Securities recommends selling EURJPY at a price of 122.03 as a defensive move if the Fed fails to provide enough convincing proof of its dovish vision. Their target is 120 and their stop is 123.50.
Trader Martin Nikolov Read more:
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