What to expect from NFP

• October data suggest that Payrolls will miss big in October.
• Dollar bulls still licking their wounds post-Fed as a rate hike seems far away.
• EUR/USD holding at the upper end of October range, scope to test 1.1250.

The US will release October employment data this Friday, and signs ahead of it are not good. The Nonfarm Payroll report is expected to show that the country has added 85K new jobs in the month, below the previous  136K. The unemployment rate is seen ticking higher from 3.5% to 3.6%, while average hourly earnings are seen up by 0.3% monthly basis and by 3.o% when compared to a year earlier.

The market anticipates a weak outcome as correlated data has missed the market’s expectations.  According to the latest release, Continuing Jobless Claims are up by 1.69M, while the Challenger Job Cuts showed that US-based employers announced job cuts of 50,275 in October, 20.97% higher than the 41,557 announced in the previous month.

The ADP survey on private employment creation, came in slightly above expected, with 125K new positions added, although the September figure was downwardly revised to 93K.

Given that the Nonfarm Payroll report will be released in the first trading day of the month, no hints are coming from ISM, which will release the official Manufacturing PMI after the employment report.

Read more:

• USA ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: 202K vs 160K
• Iran response was ‘too fast and too furious’ on the U.S. airstrike
• USA – ISM Non-manufacturing PMI: 55.0 vs 54.5
• Top 5 things to watch on Tuesday
• Noise: How to Overcome the High, Hidden Cost of Inconsistent Decision Making