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What to expect from the report of the unemployment rate, according to Goldman Sachs economist Chris Mischaikow

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There's one reason Goldman Sachs thinks Friday's jobs report could be huge: There are tons of jobs available.

In a note to clients ahead of the report, Goldman economist Chris Mischaikow writes that the availability of jobs is a factor pointing toward Friday's August jobs coming better than expected.

According to Mischaikow, data from the Conference Board showed that, for the first time since early 2008, the spread between the share of households reporting jobs are plentiful against those reporting jobs are hard to find went to zero.

This basically means that, for everyone who thinks it's easy to find a job, an equal number think it's hard, a measure that had been tilted in favor of those struggling to find work for the past several years.

And so this indication, in Goldman's view, shows a labor market coming back into balance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS report, which shows the number of job openings, has been a widely cited indicator arguing for a labor market that is back near full employment.

And for most of this year, the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires.

An alternative view of this could be an indication of a defective labor market in which employers can't find employees who have the right skills for the jobs available rather than a market in which jobs are truly plentiful.

As for factors indicating that Friday's report could disappoint, Mischaikow noted that the August jobs report has traditionally disappointed on initial release — something other economists have also noted — and also said that online job ads declined in August, potentially indicating that Friday's report could fall short of expectations.


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