What to expect from the US Non Farm Payrolls data today at 12:30GMT?

Today, at 12:30 GMT, we expect the US Non Farm Payrolls data. The forecast value is for the 310K, with data above expectations will likely support USD and US indices, while data below expectations will lead to a likely short-term decline.

Impacts from natural disasters in the US are likely to lead to an increase in the number of new jobs created, and this is the main reason for the higher expectations. However, analysts interviewed by Bloomberg are highly divided in their forecasts and their expectations vary from 120K to 400K. The most knowledgeable analysts of this data are from Moody's Analytics and they expect 313K today. The most serious accumulations in the number of forecasts are in the range between 260K and 350K and the standard statistical deviation of 81 interviewed is 46.2K.

The graph shows that historically natural disasters have affected the number of newcomers in the positive direction and analysts' expectations are justified.

Today we are also expecting data on Unemployment rate, with data showing improvements last month: 4.2%, down 0.2% from the previous 4.4%. The situation is likely to confirm the decline in unemployment, which will also be positive for the US currency.

The series of positive US economic data has pushed the market to trade a strong dollar, and this may accelerate today, while a reversal in sentiment is less likely. A number strong below expectations is needed for a reversal in sentiment to happen.

Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal

Trader Nikolay Georgiev

Read more:

• EUR/USD in front of the Non Farm Payrolls
• Dollar steadies as focus turns to job data