What to expect from the US Non Farm Payrolls today at 15:30 (GMT+3)

Today at 15:30 we expect the US employment data, the consensus for the Non Farm Payrolsl is 185K at previous 201K. Expectations for unemployment levels are 3.8% for previous 3.9%.

It is obvious to everyone that the US economy is going upward. Economic data is getting better and better. Many analysts and the media are currently reflecting yesterday's fall in indices as something significant and hardly provoked by the burn-out of the economy. Most analysts are of the opinion that better data on NFP today and hourly earnings will be negative for the indices. That is the case, but the effect will mostly be shortlived and we will see new long lower shadows in the indexes. Alternatively, if the data is below expectations, this will likely have a very limited effect on stock markets, and we may see only a one-time downward momentum and a new rise unless the data is surprisingly much below the consensus value.

In the forex market, since the start of the European session, we have seen ranges in the dollar crosses, which is provoked by caution. Probably this will be retained to the data at 3:30 pm (GMT+3), but for now we are still positive toward the USD. Wednesday's ADP data was well above expectations, which is usually an indicator of better data for NFP. It is likely that EURUSD will make a new bottom today. The situation with the big bear bar at USDJPY and given the caution of a new decline in indices and risky assets remains awaiting confirmation for a new long.

For USD, if data is below expectations or surprisingly far below expectations, we need to expect a serious greenback sell-off and 1.1650 1.17 for EURUSD are not excluded.

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