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What to expect from Theresa May

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British Prime minister Teresa May will speak in Florence and will try to underline the UK's hopes for a special partnership with the European Union. This Teresa May hopes to overcome the current impasse and resume negotiations on Brexit. The fourth round of the Brexit talks is scheduled for Monday after being postponed for one week.

Why will May make a speech?
According to Carsten Nickel, Deputy Research Director at Teneo Intelligence, May's position in the parliament is too weak to allow him to make important announcements on Friday.

Currently, May's opposition to Brexit is strong, as she has failed to win the election convincingly. Eventually, it lost its parliamentary majority but took advantage of a deal with a small Northern Ireland party.

In her speech, May will most likely support the summer deal between Chancellor Philippe Hammond and Secretary of State Liam Fox, which aims to provide a transitional period of two to three years for both sides of Brexit. May will most likely offer Britain to pay its membership fee during those two years. According to the specialists for these two years, Britain can afford to pay a maximum of $24 billion, while May, must reach an agreement with the EU, because otherwise the country will suffer serious losses.

Despite all the attempts made by May and will continue to make a close partnership with the EU, the possibility of Britain leaving the bloc without a trade or customs deal remains very large.

What about Boris Johnson?
UK Secretary of State Boris Johnson provoked political chaos on Tuesday, rumors emerging that he could withdraw from office in the government shortly after May's eagerly awaited speech in Florence.

On Tuesday, the British Foreign Minister announced that he had no choice but to give up if May encouraged payments to the EU. Boris Johnson is a supporter of Brexit, not having once stated his clear vision of how he sees Britain afterwards.

How will the EU react?
Michel Barnie is not expected to respond to May's big speech on Friday, as Brussels often says it will not negotiate with the UK on such speeches. Rather, Brussels will assess - and wait for it to see - whether the speech sets the foundations for the UK government to make more substantial progress in the Article 50 talks to be held next week. EU leaders, who are hoping for a significant change in policy (not in tons), are likely to be disappointed.

Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal

Jr Trader Petar Milanov


 Varchev Traders

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