During the last week we witnessed a serious drop in oil. Prices dropped by more than 20%, marking its entry into bearish marketing territory. Increasing production by non OPEC member countries such as the US, Libya and Nigeria raises serious concerns that the organization will be able to reduce the supply to the markets.
GBP - This was the week in which the Brexit talks began. British Prime Minister Theresa May promised Thursday that EU citizens will not be immediately kicked out of Britain when it leaves the union. Negotiations are in good tones, and this has a good effect on the currency. Earlier this week, Mark Carney said now is not the time to raise interest rates, while other Central Bank members voted for an increase. Such a division was the last in 2011. We will look for more details about the central bank policy.
USD - The dollar has dropped in the last week. Investors remain skeptical of Janet Yellen's words that tightening of the monetary policy will continue. The central bank has planned 4 rises in interest rates this year, but moods look negative, and we may only see another interest rate hike and that has a negative impact on the currency. In the short term, oil price developments will be traced, is the decline continues this will have negative impact on the risk appetite and will support safe-heaven instruments such as JPY and GOLD. We will keep track of the price of black gold, and if a new decline in the price of oil happens, we can take short positions on USD / JPY with the mid-term trend.
Important economic data for the next week:
Monday:
11:00 - Germany - Ifo Business Climate Index
15:30 - USA - Core Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday:
01:45 - New Zealand - Import
01:45 - New Zealand - Export
01:45 - New Zealand - Trade Balance
17:00 - USA - CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:
15:30 - US - Goods Trade Balance
17:00 - USA - Pending Home Sales
17:30 - USA - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday:
02:50 – Japan – Retail Sales
04:00 - Australia - HIA New Home Sales
04:00 - Australia - ANZ Business Confidence
09:00 - Germany - GfK German Consumer Climate
15:00 - Germany - CPI
15:30 - US - Gross Domestic Product
Friday:
01:45 - New Zealand - Building Consents
02:30 - Japan - Household Spending
02:30 - Japan - CPI
02:50 - Japan - Industrial Production
04:00 - China - Manufacturing PMI
09:00 - Germany – Retail sales
10:55 - Germany - Unemployment rate
11:30 - UK - Gross Domestic Product
12:00 - Europe - CPI
15:30 - Canada - Gross Domestic Product
Junior Trader Stefan Panteleev
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