What to expect in the second week of April?

As early as the first day of the new month and the new week, the sentiment of market participants "revived" after the real catharsis that the markets suffered in March. Indices, shares and cyclical instruments were cut each day amid a rising dollar, gold, yen and bonds. And investors were just "finished" with the inversion of the yield curve on March 22.

By shifting from negativism in March, markets have become increasingly aware that they should not be concerned about a recession (for the time being). Economic data is stable, we have seen quite good PMIs from China and Europe in recent days. What recession? The trade talks inspire strong optimism in the mood of investors. The market is already appreciating the US interest rate cuts, and only four months ago the forecasts were for further tightening on the part of the Federal Reserve. And on the Old Continent, the Brexit drama seems limited to individual British stocks and, of course, pounds. The United States, Europe and Asia have recorded one of their best weekly sessions this year.

Will this continue in the next week? So far nothing has changed. Market expectations are in line with expectations and there is no reason not to see good market sessions next week. What to expect? The presumed Brexit on April 12, but before that, the economic calendar has something to offer: On Monday, though a calm day, we expect the data on Germany's trade balance. Keep in mind that the US is also leading a trade war with Europe, the automotive business suffers the most, and Germany is the trump of the Trump.

Tuesday, the JOLTS report on US jobs and API weekly oil reserves will give us more insight into what jobs are being found in the US and what oil inventory buffer is available. API data will be the prelude before government official data, which we will see on Wednesday.

In addition to these figures, we expect UK GDP, trade balance and industrial output on Wednesday. An ECB statement and a decision on the interest rate will hold the euro traders under pressure and, together with US inflation data, the ECB will hold its press conference.

China again will be in focus with inflation data Thursday, after which we have inflation for Germany and the initial US aid applications.

On the last Friday night, mark your Chinese trade balance at six o'clock in the morning. At noon we are waiting for EU industrial production figures, and after the European trading session we will see Michigan's consumer mood and Baker Hughes' oil platforms.

Of course next week, Brexit will be extremely busy, and on April 10 is the extraordinary EU summit to decide whether to extend Brexit until June 30th. Bombing the media with rumors will be inevitable. Against the backdrop of Brexit's noise, we also expect any news about the trade negotiations. The seeming optimism of the markets may very suddenly change into fear and panic, but the FOMO effect has its influence.

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