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- What to expect next week 09.10-13.10 2017
What to expect next week 09.10-13.10 2017
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Loading...Over the past week, we have seen positive market sentiment. US indices scored new records every day, and the dollar increased due to better data on the country's economy. The Las Vegas shootout and the situation in Catalonia did not frighten the investors, as the shooting was accepted as an "lone act of misery". We have yet to find out who will be the new chairman of the Fed. Economic data from the United States on Friday showed that the number of US workers dropped for the first time in 10 years. On the other hand, the average hourly wage increased by 0.5% and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, a record in US history. This has had a positive impact on the USD. Expectations to raise interest rates in the US in December are another factor that has a positive impact on the USD. The strong dollar had a negative impact on gold, with precious metal reaching levels unseen since two months. Shortly after the US data, rumors have emerged that North Korea can make a new rocket test this weekend. The market reaction did not slow down and we immediately saw an increase in safe-haven instruments, such as JPY and GOLD. The information comes from a Russian source, as statistics show that in many cases these Russian sources were right. We remind you that a Russian politician on Tuesday said North Korea is likely to test a new missile.
In the next week, investors will be looking in particular for a missile test by North Korea and the situation in Catalonia. Today, information has been released that an army has been sent to the region due to the expected announcement of independence of the area on Monday. If the leaders of Catalonia declare independence in the coming days, European markets seem to continue to rise, despite some of the domestic assets in the Spanish region being hit. This is not expected to have a major impact on the euro, as the referendum will not change the future of Europe. The other major problem facing the markets is a North Korean rocket test. This will return the risk-on sentiment of the markets and eventually we will see an increase in safe-haven instruments and a fall in indexes. If we see a rocket launch at the weekend, we can expect big gaps at the start of the trade on Monday. Another thing investors will watch is any signs from Donald Trump about who will be the next FED chairman. Currently, Kevin Warsh with 43% is a favorite and markets have taken this into account. If we get a surprise, we may see a serious decline in USD and US stocks and indices. Markets will also monitor whether the new Central Bank President will have a "rule-based" approach to raising interest rates. In essence, this means that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise or lower rates based on indicators such as unemployment and inflation.
Important economic data that we are expecting next week:
Monday:
Markets in South Korea, Canada and Japan are closed due to holidays.
04:45 - China - Caixin Services PMI
09:00 - Germany - German Industrial Production
Tuesday:
00:45 - New Zealand - Electronic Card Retail Sales
02:50 - Japan - Current account
03:30 - Australia - NAB Business Confidence
08:45 - Switzerland - Unemployment rate
09:00 - Germany - Trade Balance
11:30 - UK - Industrial Production
11:30 - UK - Manufacturing production
11:30 - UK - Trade Balance
15:15 - Canada - Housing Starts
15:30 - Canada - Building Permits
Wednesday:
03:30 - Australia - Westpac Consumer Sentiment
10:45 - France - Nonfarm payrolls
17:00 - USA - JOLTs Job Openings
Thursday:
09:45 - France - CPI
13:00 - Europe - Industrial Production
15:30 - USA - Production Price Index
15:30 - USA - Initial Jobless Claims
18:00 - USA - Crude Oil Inventories
21:00 - USA - Federal Budget Balance
Friday:
08:03 - China - Trade Balance
09:00 - Germany - CPI
15:30 - USA - CPI
15:30 - US – Retail Sales
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