The next week will start relatively calm, unless Social Democrats and Christian Democrats in Germany reach an agreement on forming a coalition government. If we see such a solution, we expect strong growth in European indices and support for the EUR. Over the weekend, we will be following the development of EU-UK negotiations, with any progress leading to further boost to the GBP. On Tuesday, we expect UK CPI and PPI data, expecting an increase in benchmark values, and this will further support Bank of England's key interest rate on Thursday. A little later on Tuesday, we also expect US inflation figures that are unlikely to affect the Fed's decision on Wednesday, but will still be taken into account for next year.
On Wednesday, the series of key interest rate decisions begins and at 21:00 the Fed will announce the long-awaited key interest rate decision. Most market participants are expecting an increase, and it is likely to be a fact. Traders should be careful with USD long, as interest rises are already accrued in the price.
On Thursday, we expect the decision of the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England to base the interest rate. Expectations are that there will be no change in Swiss and UK interest rates, but traders and investors will closely follow the statements of central bankers after looking for signals of a possible change in monetary policy.
Throughout the week, we will be keeping an eye on Brexit talks and the formation of a government in Germany. As we progress on negotiations, we expect growth in GBP and EUR. The expectations of the market participants are that Germany will reach a coalition agreement before Christmas, and this can give a strong boost to the unified currency before the end of the year.
Economic calendar for the week 11.12 - 15.12.2017.
Monday:
01:50 Japan - BSI production conditions
15:00 United States - New Jobs and Jobs (JOLTS)
Tuesday:
02:30 Australia - Home Price Index
02:30 Australia - NAB business confidence
11:30 UK - CPI
11:30 UK - PPI
12:00 Germany - ZEW current economic conditions
12:00 Eurozone - ZEW current economic conditions
15:30 USA - PPI
15:30 US - CPI
21:00 USA - Federal Budget Balance
Wednesday:
01:30 Australia - Westpac Consumer Sentiment
09:00 Germany - CPI
11:30 UK - Average hourly wage + bonuses
11:30 UK - Jobless claims
11:30 UK - Unemployment rate
12:00 Eurozone - Industrial Production
15:30 US - CPI
17:30 US - Crude Oil Inventories
21:00 United States - Interest Rate
21:00 USA - Speech by Janet Yellen, Fed Governor
Thursday:
02:30 Australia - Unemployment Rate
04:00 China - Investments in Assets
04:00 China - Industrial Production
04:00 China - Retail Sales
10:30 Switzerland - Basic SNB interest rate
10:30 Switzerland - SNB Report on the Baseline Interest Rate Decision
10:30 Germany - Manufacturing PMI
11:00 Switzerland - Press conference of SNB
11:00 Eurozone - Production PMI
11:30 UK - Retail Sales
14:00 United Kingdom - Basic Interest Rate
14:45 Eurozone - Basic interest rate
15:30 USA - Retail Sales
15:30 Canada - Housing Price Index
15:30 Eurozone - Speech by Mario Draghi, Governor of the ECB
16:45 USA - Production PMI
Friday:
01:50 Japan - Tankan Production Index
12:00 Eurozone - Trade Balance
15:30 Canada - Industrial Sales
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