What to expect next week: 15.01 - 19.01.2018

Data on Chinese GDP, industrial production and retail sales. will be in focus for investors next week. Market participants expect the data to confirm the slowdown in the second-largest economy in the world. The news from China will have a strong impact on the shares of emerging economies as well as on AUD and NZD. The probability of the data being better than expected is low, and if it gets worse, investors will react sharply, and we may see a decline in Asian benchmarks and the Australian along with NZD. Next week, we expect Bank Of Canada decision on the basic interest rate. Wednesday raise is almost certain, as the accumulated probability currently stands at 85.5%. The expected increase will be 25 basis points to 1.25%. To a large extent, this is already reflected in the value of the Canadian dollar and for this reason traders will focus on the Bank of Canada report, which will be published together with the interest rate decision. Given the data from Canada, investors will be watching closely the Canadian, which last week experienced a significant level of resistance against the USD, and a few minutes before the end of this gives us very good positioning with short USD/CAD. Given expectations of tightening monetary policy and the apparently steady upward trend in oil, we expect the downward movement in USD/CAD to remain. Last week, the news in support of the euro did not stop, and next time we expect a series of inflation figures in euro area countries. Analysts' expectations are to see an increase, and this in turn to support EUR extra. The Brexit talks will remain the main driver of the GBP, and after earlier it became clear that a large proportion of EU members want the UK closer to trade, we expect the upward trend in pounds to remain.

Monday is a day off in the US, which will lead to a change in the trading time of some financial instruments.

Economic calendar for the week 15.01 - 19.01.2018

Monday
- A holiday in United States
- 12:00 Eurozone - Trade Balance
- 23:00 New Zealand - Business confidence
- 23:45 New Zealand - Retail sales via credit cards

Tuesday
- 01:50 Japan - PPI
- 02:30 Australia - Sale of new cars
- 09:00 Germany - CPI
- 11:30 UK - CPI
- 11:30 UK - PPI

Wednesday
- 01:30 New Zealand - Westpac Consumer sentiment
- 02:30 Australia - Home Loans
- 12:00 Eurozone - CPI
- 16:15 USA - Industrial Production
- 17:00 Canada - Basic Interest Rate
- 17:00 Canada - BoC Report on the Interest Rate

Thursday
- 02:00 Australia - New Homes sales
- 02:30 Australia - Unemployment Rate
- 04:00 China - Official GDP Q4 2017
- 04:00 China – Retail sales
- 04:00 China - Industrial Production
- 06:30 Japan - Industrial Production
- 15:30 United States - Building permits
- 15:30 US – Jobless claims
- 15:30 USA – Philadelphia manufacturing PMI
- 15:30 Canada - ADP Non Farm Payrolls
- 18:00 US - Crude Oil inventories

Friday
- 09:00 Germany - Production index
- 10:15 Switzerland - Production index
- 11:30 UK – Retail sales
- 15:30 Canada - Foreign Investments in Equities
- 17:00 US - Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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