What will move the markets next week? Brexit, trade negotiations and fear

The week did not end well, it was. The markets were again scared, the stocks sank, the precious metals and the oil followed, and the gold, the yen and the dollars were again enjoying a great deal of attention. The crypto market seemingly does not react to anything from the real world. It seems that the FIDE's mood was not convincing enough, it was inconsistent with the economic outlook in the US and the world. The share rally in the world was interrupted after last year's emotions captured investors and traders. And Europe and China once again showed us "red signals". What caused the sell - off?

Brexit has experienced a strong turnaround after the EU agreed in two ways to extend Brexit - in which Parliament accepts the May deal and does not accept it. What happened, you can read here. The Pound reacts positively to the events, even though ends the week in red. However, stocks in the UK have suffered serious losses.

We expect the sentiment to remain shy again next week, with a strong yen, a dollar and a gold. If there is no positive catalyst, we will hardly see a mood change at the end of the month. Brexit will be back next week, because May is expected to offer her vote for the third time. This vote will now be heavily linked to the way in which Britain will leave the EU. Besides from a fundamental point of view and opening to all kinds of information noises, rumors and news, from a macroeconomic point of view we also have a relatively busy economic calendar at the end of March.

The seemingly calm Monday will bring IFO business moods from Germany and at the end of the day we will also understand the trade balance of New Zealand.

Tuesday, again Germany is facing us with GfK consumer moods and serious US real estate data. Again, Kiwi will be in focus at the end of the day, as RBNZ will announce interest, and oil will have to take into account the new API weekly API data. But with Kiwi, we will not be finished.

Tuesday vs. Wednesday RBNZ will continue with its economic forecast and press conference. Mario Draghi will wake up European markets with a press conference, and later in the day the US trade balance will be in focus as well as crude oil reserves.

Thursday - Business confidence in New Zealand, GDP, initial aid applications, and pending sales of US housing will be the driving force at the end of the European session and the start of the US.

Surprisingly, Friday will be the busiest day, with Japan pushing the Asian markets and the yen with industrial production and retail sales. We expect retail sales in the bright day of the day and Germany and unemployment rate. The day will continue with UK GDP and CPI from the US and Europe. At noon we expect Canada's GDP, Chicago's PMI for the US, and Michigan consumer expectations. Towards the end of the European session we will see the data on Baker Hughes' new property sales and Baker Hughes oil platforms.

Serious data on the performance of major economies that will reinforce or dispel the fears and concerns that the world economy is slowing down. During this time, it would be a good idea to get at least a good news from the US-China trade talks, which are continuing, although for the moment it seems that the indictment is lost, but Lighthizer and Mnuchin return to China next week.

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