A rate hike will come and the bull market will stumble, bond yields will climb and the economy will slip into a recession.
This we know.
What we don't know is how long all of that will take and how long it will last.
Тhe Federal Reserve's aggressiveness in raising rates is often, though not always, a determinant in how the economy and financial assets respond.
Stocks
As the market has seen over the past month or so, anticipation of rate hikes can make things volatile for a while. Once the hike hits, though, the impact is not as dramatic
GDP
Recessions are a fact of economic life, but rate hikes often help them along.
In the current case, the Fed is facing some conditions that did not exist before and could hasten a recession. Most notably, gross domestic product will be near its lowest point ever for a Fed rate hike.
Bonds
Fixed income also has been volatile as the market anticipates a rate hike, and the pattern is somewhat similar to what equities experience.
The principal difference is that the impact happens faster in bonds than stocks when the Fed changes course in policy
Winners and losers
Broadly speaking, companies that do the majority of their business in the U.S. will win as interest rates rise and local products become more attractive. Multinationals with lots of debt will fare worse, as a rising dollar makes their products more expensive in the global market space and their debt more expensive the finance.
Source:CNBC
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