After the referendum results at 9:00 of 24.06. understandable GBPUSD will be most moving and traded instrument. Big moves are also expected by couples GBPJPY and GBPCHF because the JPY and CHF were used for safe havens.
Should the UK choose to Remain in the EU will affect also GBPAUD upwards because of the strength of the pound. This is likely to lead to short-term sales on AUDUSD, which is a pair of triangular arbitrage. Selling in the pair is expected to turn quickly because of sentiment change to risk on the market and increased demand for commodities, which will support the AUD. In the alternative Leave case all that will apply in reverse. Couples GBPCAD and USDCAD are subject to the same correlations.
More interesting is the question in the pair EUR / GBP. Here we can expect a rise in Leave scenario because of weak GBP and fall in case of Remain due to strength of GBP. In scenario for Remain it is likely to see an increase in EURUSD and all other Euro crosses.
Of course there is no magic algorithm that can tell us what will happen in any of the scenarios, but it is better to be prepared for possible fundamental development in both scenarios.
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