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- Where will money flows go – important events for the week
Where will money flows go - important events for the week
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Loading...As we continue to become obsessed with the ever-torn relationship between Washington and Beijing, there are a number of new major macroeconomic indicators topics to look out for this new week. In particular, it is possible early elections in Italy, with Deputy Prime Minister Salvini bringing more light on the topic on Monday. It is rumored that Prime Minister Conte will seek a vote of confidence that could affect the euro.
On the other side of the coin, and more positively, reports that Germany is targeting a possible fiscal stimulus, which is suspected of taking advantage of the negative return environment to borrow and will be paid for it. The contradiction is that the famous fiscally responsible nation would cancel its balanced budget by increasing its accumulation and spending on government debt. The rumor is that they would use climate protection targeting, which would be somewhat better for a nation that consistently required, like Italy, Portugal and Greece, to manage its fiscal deficit.
It's hard not to think that this can actually be a big deal, especially if we get Deputy Prime Minister Salvini to form a new, more populist government. With Italians expected to renegotiate their budget with the EU in 2020, this dynamic will become a market problem and we are likely to gain more clarity this week. All looks at Italian BTP and whether the spread on German bonds is increasing.
Politics does not stop here, with the UK continuing to reject Irish backstop in the UK. This will not shock in any way, but there is growing speculation (source: The Sun & FT) that a general election can be held just days after the Brexit deadline of 31 October. This fits in with one of my views that we can see a no-confidence vote drawn by the Bojo government when the Commons return from summer vacation on September 3rd.
USDJPY already looks heavy, especially if we also have negative data, such as CPI and retail sales will be tested at 105.00.
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov Read more:
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