Will traders be held hostage to the trade war next week

For weeks now, every day, China and the US have been tossing the ball with controversial rhetoric about the progress of negotiations. Whether Trump's move using Hong Kong as a lever is just a bluff is yet to be seen. His signature has not yet been laid on the official law that passed through Congress. At this point he does not reveal when he will sign it, if at all. On the other hand, the US makes small compromises, such as with Huawei. Trump gave a carte blanche within 3 months to a Chinese company to work with an American. Increasing doubts and uncertainty are already visible in the markets after the movements of the last days. Trump has not yet confirmed whether the December 15 tariffs will really be repealed.

Thus, the markets remain hostage to their fragile expectations for any official positive news. We expect this to continue in the next week. We think that sentiment will remain slightly bullish, but rather uncertain, and with the passing of days we will expect at least some official news to come out, even negative ones. Cash flows are still shifting to risky instruments, though the pace is slowing down later this week.

In Europe, Brexit remains the main topic and the trade war between the EU and the US. Here, too, tariffs against carmakers in Europe are rising above the Old Continent.

Next week is also the last of the month, and we will expect the usual sharper movements in both directions as market participants reposition themselves.

The new trading week begins on Monday with data on Germany in the European markets: business expectations and IFO business climate. In the US supermarket, Canadian wholesale sales will boost the Canadian dollar, and later retail sales for New Zealand will heat up before the Asian session.

Germany will again focus on GfK business climate data Tuesday. During the US session, investors will focus on new home sales. In the end - API weekly data on oil stocks. Again, New Zealand will set the pace in Asia with an RBNZ report and trade balance.

On Wednesday, ahead of the state session, we will expect data on sales of durable goods, GDP, initial aid applications, PMI of Chicago, sales of new pending homes and official data on oil stocks.

On Thursday, the United States celebrates its national holiday - Thanksgiving, so markets will be closed or closed for a limited time and this will significantly reduce liquidity. Asian session starts with Japan - retail. Shortly before the start of the US session, Europeans will focus on German inflation.

Friday traders will take a little rest because it is Thanksgiving in the US. The US markets will close sooner, which will also have a strong impact on liquidity. Japan's data on inflation and industrial production open the session in Asia. In Europe's premarkets, retail sales to Germany and unemployment. Following is the euro area with inflation and labor market figures. Canada - GDP in the US supermarket, and later the number of Baker Hughes oil platforms.

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