NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The S&P 500 of 2015 is looking a lot like the S&P in 2011.
Here are 3 reasons why a 2011-like summer drop is possible:
1. 2015, like 2011 is a pre-election year. Years with the same position in the election year cycle tend to have similar features.
2. Both in 2011 and 2015, the S&P was stuck in a trading range for the first five-and-a-half months of the year. Both times the S&P was flat after 111 trading days (June 12).
3. Weakness under the hood. Price is always the final arbiter, but it's not the only thing that matters. Sometimes pure price action is deceptive, and hides an underlying trend.
Internal weakness can be one of those underlying trends, and it existed prior to the 20% 2011 meltdown.
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