With slowdown of the momentum, facts point to a contraction in the global economy

The International Monetary Fund again reduced its global economic growth forecast for 2019, citing risks such as increased trade tensions and tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

The point here is that expectations for the future remain positive. But the IMF said it expects the economy to grow by 3.6% in 2020.

Leading indicators of major economies are down, including those in the United States, Britain, Canada, China and Europe.

However, the IMF said: "The expected interest rate market path remains below the Federal Open Market Committee's forecast, which increases the possibility of a market reassessment of the expected political path if US economic data remains strong. This may lead to higher US interest rates, a renewed appreciation of the dollar, and tighter financial conditions for emerging markets and emerging economies with vulnerable balances. "

Of course, other well-known risks still remain in the forefront - Brexit without a deal, political uncertainty about the coming elections in a number of countries, and geopolitical tensions in East Asia.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Chart: Used with permission from Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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